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A Vote For Huckabee Is A Vote Against McCain (As It Always Has Been)

I took the “Huckabee will drop out once Romney does” view a couple weeks ago, which was obviously wrong, so I have completely missed what Huckabee has been trying to accomplish.  He is trying to rack up more delegates to become the candidate with the second-most delegates overall, but I think there is an impulse behind “giving the people a choice” […]

I took the “Huckabee will drop out once Romney does” view a couple weeks ago, which was obviously wrong, so I have completely missed what Huckabee has been trying to accomplish.  He is trying to rack up more delegates to become the candidate with the second-most delegates overall, but I think there is an impulse behind “giving the people a choice” that makes Huckabee and his campaign want to test the proposition of whether McCain can, in fact, win the nomination outright through contested primaries.  This isn’t just a way for Huckabee to gain status and prominence in the party, but possibly a way to try to deny McCain some of the 352 delegates he still needs.  It is very unlikely that Huckabee will succeed even in this blocking maneuver, but if there continues to be a strong backlash against McCain it is possible that he could fall short of the required number.  Through March 4, McCain cannot acquire as many delegates as he needs to end it (only 305 are at stake in Wisconsin and the March 4 states), so Huckabee can keep prolonging it after that for the sake of prolonging it and testing McCain’s ability to win in many of these other states in the Midwest and the South.  That requires him to win Texas and probably a couple other states as well, or else McCain will wrap things up very quickly after that regardless.  After March 4, except for the territorial and Puerto Rico votes, things theoretically become more more favourable for an anti-McCain effort: Mississippi, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Idaho are all likely to be good states for Huckabee, and Pennsylvania has a strong contingent of Christian conservatives as well.  Huckabee cannot win, but it is still conceivable that McCain might still not win.  For this to happen, obviously it would require over a dozen states to choose Huckabee knowing full well that he will not be the nominee.  Maybe the convention then chooses McCain anyway in exchange for concessions and pledges that he makes on the platform and on policy, or maybe it is thrown to someone else. 

Huckabee offers the anti-McCain forces an ideal champion in one sense: whether or not you actually like him or his views, he truly cannot become the nominee now no matter how many primaries and caucuses he wins, so supporting him is simply a way to express dissatisfaction with McCain.  Romney was a poor figure to rally around, since there was always the unpleasant reality that he might actually win the nomination.  The virtue of Huckabee’s resistance is the impossibility of his ultimate victory.

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