Now in his third White House try, Paul is given little chance by political analysts of emerging as President Barack Obama’s 2012 challenger. Yet in Iowa, where the Feb. 6 caucuses start the nomination process, he has a committed and well-funded network that some say may be capable of an upset at the Aug. 13 Iowa Straw Poll, a party fundraising event meant to test the popularity and organizational ability of presidential candidates.

“They are far more organized and are running a formidable campaign,” said Craig Robinson, editor of the Iowa Republican website and a former state party political director. “They are easily a spoiler for someone. I think the question is whether Ron Paul finishes first or second.” ~Bloomberg

If Ron Paul won the Ames straw poll, it would obviously be a significant boost for his campaign, and it would also be a real blow to all of the other candidates competing at the event. Is that the way it would be covered and perceived? Of course, the candidates lagging at the back of the pack would spin a Paul victory as proof that the straw poll is in some sense “meaningless,” but then the straw poll has always been largely meaningless as far as selecting the candidate who will go on to become the nominee. It will hardly do to dismiss a good showing in this straw poll by saying that the Paul campaign has a history of winning straw polls. Isn’t that just a backhanded way of acknowledging that the campaign is organized and has enthusiastic activists? In any case, Paul appears poised to show substantial improvement from 2007.