Daniel Larison

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A Ron Paul Upset at Ames? (II)

By Daniel Larison • July 28, 2011, 12:32 PM

Ron Paul has picked up a valuable local endorsement ahead of the Ames straw poll:

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul has fresh bragging rights after picking up what is surely a coveted endorsement on Monday.
Cory Adams – the Republican chairman of Story County in Iowa – endorsed the Texas congressman’s presidential bid at a campaign event in Ames, Iowa.

That’s significant for a few reasons. Ames is the largest city in Story County, home to over 50,000 residents. And it is in this city that a widely-watched showdown between the GOP presidential candidates will play out on August 13. The Ames Straw Poll will test the candidates’ popularity and could be a sign of their electability.

Having the endorsement of such an influential political figure in and around Ames will surely give Paul’s campaign something to boast about as it aims for a strong showing in that contest.

One endorsement from a local party official may not move very many votes, but it certainly indicates that Ron Paul is gaining traction in a state where few would normally expect him to do well.

A recent New York Times article lists Rep. Paul’s advantages:

Mr. Paul, of Texas, has a number of factors going for him. He has a legion of passionate supporters, many of them young, who in the past have flooded other straw polls that he has won.

His effort in Iowa is well financed. His latest online fund-raiser, “Ready, Ames, Fire,” brought in $550,000, added to the $4.5 million he raised in the second quarter.

The money has bought time for radio and television spots, for six paid staff members in the state and to fly in Mr. Paul by private jet (“Operation Top Gun”) for weekly rallies, including two he attended Monday here and in Ames.

6 Responses to A Ron Paul Upset at Ames? (II)

cfountain72 says:

July 28, 2011 at 4:09 pm

I’m sure it can be tough for some of local party bigwigs to stick their necks out and support someone who was viewed as a leper by many only a few short years ago. Good for him!

I know a lot of work was done in 2008 to lay some groundwork within the party with the longer term goal of moving up in the GOP machinery. Wonder if Mr. Adams part of that or did he just have a change of heart?

Peace be with you.
Hamilton Fan says:

July 29, 2011 at 6:27 am

Ron Paul agrees with Michele Bachmann and Gary Johnson that we should not raise the debt ceiling.
seans says:

July 29, 2011 at 6:56 am

There’s an interesting debate going on in Paul circles about who they should focus their appeal to. The official campaign is made up largely of persons who worked on Rand’s successful Senate campaign and who feel they should try to convince conservative Republicans to vote for them. But there are many in the grassroots who wish to broaden the appeal to independents, liberals, libertarians and such Paul does poll better among these groups than conservatives. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in Ames because both the campaign and grassroots have phonebank operations working their respective sides of the street.

I don’t think either approach is wrong. My thought is (and one in which a wrote a piece on) Paul’s appeals to conservatives must be towards those who practice it in ethos rather than as ideology. I believe it is these kinds of voters who make up a good chunk of the GOP base, not those who religiously follow the Limbauaghs or Hannitys or read all the websites or watch Fox News. I they would be most receptive to Paul’s appeal if the straw poll shows he can be a successful candidate. They are the ones who are most wedded to the party as an institution. I think you can build a broad coalition of such voters along with the more libertarian minded Tea Partiers, liberal and moderate Republicans (whose bloc support is often decisive in GOP primaries) and the leftist or disgruntled Democrat who can vote for Paul in open primaries and caucuses (there are I believe 17 of them with 874 delegates) to register their protest against the Obama Administration’s foreign policy.
tbraton says:

July 29, 2011 at 8:58 am

I think the significance of the Ames Straw Poll is vastly overrated. One only has to consider that in 2007 Romney won the straw poll by 32% to 18% for Huckabee, who went on to win the January 2008 caucuses by 34% to Romney’s 25%. The structure of the Ames Straw Poll means that it has rarely been a good indicator of subsequent success, as the following Wikipedia entry illustrates (which fully explains Romney’s decision to bypass this year’s straw poll and save his money for the much more important January caucuses—whatever else you think about Romney, he certainly has shown he has a good head for business):

“Format: The poll takes place among attendees of a fundraising dinner benefiting the Iowa Republican Party. Before the vote, each candidate is given a chance to make a short speech to the attendees.

The poll has been described as a cross between a political convention and a county fair, where Iowa voters have a chance to mingle, eat barbecue and have a little fun. The party divides the venue into sections and auctions each to the candidates, who can then set up booths to present their case to the voters. The larger areas and those closest to the entrance often fetch the highest price. In 2011 bidding started at $15,000 and ranged to as high as $31,000. [1]

Non-Republicans are allowed to vote in the Ames Straw Poll. However, all voters must be 18 years of age on or before the Presidential election date, be legal residents of the state of Iowa or a student attending an Iowa university/college, and purchase a ticket to the fundraising dinner.[2] Voters have their hands stamped or their thumbs dipped in ink when entering the voting area so that they cannot vote twice. Ballots are put into electronic voting machines.

[edit] Significance: As a straw poll, the Ames Straw Poll’s results are non-binding and have no official effect on the presidential primaries. However, the straw poll is frequently seen as a first test of organizational strength in Iowa by the news media and party insiders. As such, it can become very beneficial for the winning candidate on the national level because it builds momentum for their campaign, enhances their aura of inevitability, and shows off a superior field operation.[3]

Since its founding, the winner of the Ames Straw Poll has gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination two out of five times. Three out of five winners (including one of the winners of the 1995 tie) have gone on to win the Iowa Caucuses.

On a more local level, the Ames Straw Poll gives a major boost to the local economy.[4] Thousands of people, including journalists, campaign staffers, and voters, arrive in town around the time of the poll. The Ames Straw Poll is one of the Iowa Republican Party’s most lucrative fundraising events”
seans says:

July 29, 2011 at 9:10 am

I think its significance depends upon the candidate. For someone like Mitt Romney in 2012, the straw poll is eyewash. He doesn’t need to win it, he still the frontrunner regardless of what happens in Ames, so he wisely chooses not to compete in it.

But Huckabee’s second place showing in 2007 almost overnight transformed into into a major candidate. He went from back in the back to a top tier candidate. The same possibility can happen to Paul if he wins Ames. Remember, only Iowans can vote so it’s not like any other straw poll (and Iowans can change their party registration to Republicans to vote caucuses on the same night). If Paul wins, the people who say they like him but don’t think he can win, may very well come off the fence and support him, espcially outside of the “conservative movement”.
tbraton says:

July 29, 2011 at 9:28 am

Keep in mind that Romney also started out very low in the polls, like Huckabee, and spent a lot of money to build up his name recognition and basically buy the 2007 Ames straw poll, which he won handily. This time around he doesn’t have to waste money on the straw poll since he already has name recognition and will, in all likelihood, lose the straw poll. The fact that Paul, like Romney, ran in 2008 and still needs to build up his name recognition in a conservative state like Iowa this time around says a lot about his campaigning abilities. With Bachmann in the race, I doubt that Paul can win the straw poll.