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A Recipe for an International Incident

Michael Auslin describes the Chinese challenge to the U.S. in the South China Sea, and he concludes: More broadly, Washington’s goal, executed through Hawaii-based Pacific Command, should be to create a more active maritime community of interests in the Indo-Pacific arc and to counter Chinese moves where they occur. Greater sharing of intelligence resources, joint […]

Michael Auslin describes the Chinese challenge to the U.S. in the South China Sea, and he concludes:

More broadly, Washington’s goal, executed through Hawaii-based Pacific Command, should be to create a more active maritime community of interests in the Indo-Pacific arc and to counter Chinese moves where they occur. Greater sharing of intelligence resources, joint training, coordinated (if not joint) patrols and the like will provide the measure of security necessary to ensure smaller nations that their international rights are being protected. U.S. and allied ships should have no compunction about shadowing Chinese naval vessels when they start to approach contested territory.

Finally, political bluntness, such as that of U.S. Senator Jim Webb, who warned of a coming “Munich moment” in Asia, will clarify the issues at stake. Whether it wants to or not, America will have to start nudging some billiard balls around the table.

It’s disappointing that Sen. Webb is indulging the laziest trope in foreign policy debate. It seems most unlikely that there will be any such moment. The concern that I have is that Auslin’s proposals would seem to set the stage for a much more dangerous repeat of the Hainan incident in 2001. That incident was a product of U.S. surveillance aircraft operating in airspace that the Chinese claimed as their own. If the Chinese are serious in backing up territorial claims to disputed islands in the South China Sea, and we assume that they are, shadowing Chinese vessels that approach contested territory runs the risk of an accident or clash that could escalate into something larger.

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