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“A Festival of Self-Congratulation” (II)

Erik Kain reacts to Huntsman’s missed opportunity: Having been pretty positive about Huntsman up to this point – including his apparently more sober foreign policy views – it’s discouraging to see such a lousy outcome in this debate. Drawing a sharp contrast with Gingrich would be useful for Huntsman, and encouraging to realists like myself. […]

Erik Kain reacts to Huntsman’s missed opportunity:

Having been pretty positive about Huntsman up to this point – including his apparently more sober foreign policy views – it’s discouraging to see such a lousy outcome in this debate. Drawing a sharp contrast with Gingrich would be useful for Huntsman, and encouraging to realists like myself. Larison argues that this should extinguish “whatever enthusiasm realists and non-interventionists had for Huntsman’s candidacy.”

Certainly in some ways it does. Realists and non-interventionists and doves of all stripes have few good choices in any election. But could Huntsman simply be trying purposefully to bolster Gingrich’s chances in Iowa in order to force Romney and Gingrich to cannibalize one another?

That’s certainly how John Heilemann interpreted the event when he described it as “a profoundly cynical two-man political maneuver masquerading as an exercise in well-intentioned high-mindedness.” Despite what I was saying yesterday, it occurs to me now that Gingrich isn’t likely to gain very much with Iowa caucus-goers by appearing at a New Hampshire event with a candidate who has never had any intention of competing in Iowa.

In fact, engaging in a “festival of self-congratulation” with a candidate whom Republicans nationwide view as one of the least acceptable potential nominees does Gingrich no good with conservative activists. However, it probably doesn’t do him any great harm, either, and there’s nothing Gingrich said during the exchange that will alienate most conservatives. Instead, Huntsman ended up agreeing with Gingrich on just about everything. Gingrich might be able to afford wasting his time at such an event, but it’s not clear how it really benefits Huntsman. Should Gingrich prevail in Iowa, New Hampshire will almost certainly not support the Iowa winner, and in that case it is far more likely that Romney will win New Hampshire. Building up Gingrich as a rival to Romney does Huntsman little good, because the rise of Gingrich makes “somewhat conservative” and moderate voters more likely to rally to Romney, and Huntsman does himself no good with his target voters by mimicking Gingrich’s hard-line policy views.

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