Substituting Emotion For Analysis


But it’s not the Leveretts’ ultra-realist policy views that are so discomfiting. It is the sense that they cross a line into making apologies for the loathsome Ahmadinejad. ~Michael Crowley

Via Kevin Sullivan

Ah, yes, it is “the sense” that they do this in the absence of proof that they have done it. I have the sense that Crowley has attempted to spice up a rather bland article with unfounded charges against the Leveretts. He calls them Ahmadinejad’s “intellectual defenders,” but what they have actually written is analysis stating that it is very likely that Ahmadinejad won re-election and would have won it whether or not fraud took place. Otherwise, they are not defending him, his methods, or his policies in the least as far as I have seen, which makes it hard to call them his defenders at all. It sounds catchy, and it serves to reinforce negative attitudes about them, but it is pretty blatantly false. Crowley has a chance with this article to prove his claim, and he doesn’t do it.

There is good reason to believe that the Leveretts’ analysis of the election was correct all along. Analysis to the contrary has been strongly influenced by a lot of unfounded assumptions about what “must have” happened, which has colored and distorted much of the subsequent analysis about internal Iranian politics that the Leveretts’ critics have done. The Leveretts’ analysis did not fit in with a lot of the conventional happy talk about people power and democratic revolution, and because they refused to engage in a lot of baseless optimistic chatter they were deemed apologists for despotism and have been called just about everything short of enemy agents. The campaign attacking them has been simply disgraceful.

It is actually useful to understand that Ahmadinejad built his power base among poorer Iranians as a populist skilled in winning over crowds. Acknowledging that he has some skills as a politician would seem to be a basic recognition of reality. It might also be a helpful balance to the standard portrayal that shows him variously as a suicidal maniac or as a clown. Whether or not the Leveretts think Ahmadinejad is “charming” (a word I have never seen them use about him), it is not hard to recognize that a populist politician can be charming, enjoy a broad base of support, and also be ruthless and brutal against those who oppose him. In many authoritarian and authoritarian populist states, these things are usually linked together. We are somehow able to understand that Vladimir Putin is both broadly popular in Russia and capable of ordering acts of tremendous brutality. One doesn’t acknowledge any of these things to praise him, but to understand something about him and the politics of his country. The same would apply to Ahmadinejad.

The question of whether Ahmadinejad is a “despicable” person, which Crowley asks at the end of his article, is really a rather stupid question. I doubt there are very many people in the West who would not say that he is. I think he is, but so what? Do I get a prize? If I say that he is, does that permit me to make the same arguments I have been making for years without being suspected of working “objectively” for Tehran? Quite obviously, most Americans are going to find Ahmadinejad’s methods and his politics despicable, but what does that tell you about what our Iran policy should be?

What is the point of Crowley’s question? To establish that we are all capable of meaningless moralizing about a foreign leader? If the Leveretts refused to be pulled in by this, so much the better for them. This is more of the same tired personalization of foreign policy. If we obsess over a foreign leader as an embodiment of villainy, it will keep us from having to think rationally about real policy options, and it will absolutely prevent the consideration of any sort of sustained diplomatic engagement. The only purpose for this obsession with Ahmadinejad that I can see is to make it easier to advocate confrontational and aggressive policies against Iran. It is a way of substituting emotion and passion for critical thinking about the potential for improved U.S.-Iranian relations. It is mostly a way of striking the right pose for lack of anything else to contribute to the debate. Iran hawks may have nothing but terrible ideas, but at least they have sufficient hate for Ahmadinejad!

Kevin Sullivan also has a very good response to the Crowley article. I recommend reading that as well.

Update: Tim Fernholz makes much the same point:

Certainly, the Iranian president is despicable, but the restless urge to demonize people like Ahmadinejad has never paid dividends for the United States’ foreign policy; contests of who can hate more do not international achievement make.

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7 Responses to “Substituting Emotion For Analysis”

  1. You know, “loathsome” and “despicable” seem awfully strong moral terms to throw around. Dude may be someone I don’t want to have as my president, but he’s nowhere near Hitler levels, let alone Mussolini. Or a dozen other autocratic-but-US-supported dictators – Mobutu, to take one at semi-random? His primary crimes seem to have been saying that he didn’t think Israel was going to survive forever, and taking relatively drastic measures to ensure he won an election. Crackdowns on protests are pretty nasty, yes, but saying that he’s terrible person at the start of any discussion regarding Iran can and will get tiresome.

  2. I agree. He’s hardly the worst of the worst, and ritual condemnation of foreign leaders is very tiresome. Having said that he is despicable brings us no closer to an answer on how to treat Iran.

  3. “It is actually useful to understand that Ahmadinejad built his power base among poorer Iranians as a populist skilled in winning over crowds.”

    Perhaps more useful than is apparent at first glance. Suppose the US were to elect as its next President a charming populist politician who was inclined to view all disagreements, domestic and foreign, in Manichaean terms, and whose behavior toward non-allies tilted heavily toward simplistic demonization, grandiose shows of hostility and saber-rattling. Would the rest of the world find it productive to behave toward the US as Crowley et al expect us to behave toward Iran under Ahmadinejad’s leadership? How would our government, and our public, respond to such treatment?

  4. Opinionators like Michael Crowley should really take the trouble to understand how government, all governments, work.
    Ahmadinejad, whatever he may be, does not govern like Louis XIV, and even Louis XIV did not govern like the simple minded suppose. He has acolytes just like Bush, Blair, Obama dreaming up all kinds of crazy schemes all the time. Is Ahmadinejad the last guy to nod and say ‘go ahead and do it?” Probably, but not definitely. The fact is we don’t know.
    From what I have been able to gather, “enhanced interrogation” was the subject of high level meetings involving Cheney, his minions, Rice, her minions, Agency minions, Justice minions, etc. etc. Odds are favorable that Bush nodded the go ahead. Does this make the lot of them of them despicable and loathsome? Depends on what you think about sexually tormenting people you have in custody and inducing in them the sensation of drowning.
    Our punditry requires demons and our government either actively encourages it or gives assent with its silence. Worse than disgraceful, it is reckless because when it comes to cutting deals which is the business of diplomacy you have boxed yourself in with your own bullshit. And when you believe your own bullshit, Bush, Cheney, Powell, Rice, look at what can happen.

  5. I tend to disagree with a lot of the Leverett’s conclusions and assessments, but it’s pointless and distracting to be concerned with their motives. They are either right or wrong for whatever reasons, and personal blindness and bias is a universal fault among all commentators, including those of us who criticize the Leverett’s. I think they, and Larison, are quite a bit too certain in their pessimism, but that’s the kind of personal bias one simply can’t argue away on a personal level, it has to be countered by facts and reason. The situation in Iran is far too complex to be reduced to simplistic analysis, and this is a problem for those who are on either side of the optimism/pessimism divide.

    One thing that needs to be said is that pessimism does not mean sympathy for the forces optimists wish to overcome and defeat, even if they may be tempted to see it that way.

  6. Rowan:

    His primary crimes seem to have been saying that he didn’t think Israel was going to survive forever, and taking relatively drastic measures to ensure he won an election.

    Also questioning sacred doctrines about Nazi population policy. In progressive countries people go to jail for that.

  7. Whatever the merits of the case for Ahmadinejad’s legitimacy, that Crowley piece reeks so much of insinuation and innuendo, it will make your eyes burn.

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