The Tide Keeps Rising
As I mentioned yesterday, the only political tide that seems to be rising is the public’s increasing support for military action against Iran. Via Scoblete comes this new Rasmussen poll confirming that assessment:
Seventy percent (70%) of voters believe it is more important to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons than it is to prevent war between Israel and Iran. That’s up 18 points from July 2008. Twenty-two percent (22%) say preventing war between the two nations is more important.
There is nothing that has actually happened in the last year and a half that would explain this jump in pro-war sentiment. As Giraldi notes on the main blog, the story that claimed Iran was at the stage of building detonators for nuclear weapons was complete nonsense. Nonetheless, false stories such as this one combined with a constant drumbeat for sanctions and bombing are bound to push public opinion in the wrong direction.
Support for war with Iran is, of course, most concentrated among Republicans and self-described conservatives. 79% of Republicans believe that the U.N.’s response to Iran’s nuclear program has not been aggressive enough. Just 9% of Republicans believe it has been too aggressive. Conservatives take the same view 77-6%. 74% of Republicans believe preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is more important than preventing war between Israel and Iran, and just 19% believe the opposite. The numbers for conservatives are identical. 66% of Republicans believe the U.S. should aid Israel in the event that it attacks Iran, and just 23% believe we should “do nothing.” Among conservatives, the numbers are 65-26.
So there is a minority in the GOP and among conservatives that does not want war with Iran, but it is not very large and we know it is poorly represented among national Republican figures and members of Congress. The political right as it exists right now overwhelmingly favors a war with Iran. Launching such a war, or allowing such a war to be launched, is one of the greatest dangers to U.S. interests and security, and support it has only been intensifying. This is what non-interventionists and conservative realists need to spend their time opposing.
Folly may be worse, in foreign affairs, than crime, but a war with Iran, aide from its terminal stupidity, would also be a crime.
To accomplish a war with Iran, however, the instigators need a pretext, say a nice little terrorist attack. Perhaps the Mossad will oblige. They have done so before. It was called Operation Susannah.
As I’ve said in on the main blog, I don’t think war with Iran is at all likely – without a serious incident that is. The uniformed military know we can’t fight it, and the Pentagon doesn’t want to. Congressional Democrats won’t go for it either. Threaten and impose sanctions is one thing, but an attack is another. Although it will be interesting to see how the Berman gas sanctions fare in the Senate and on the President’s desk.
And Rasmussen is known for slanting their polls towards the right (in this case towards anti-Iran sentiment).
Maybe it’s because Rasmussen is a reliable neo-con tool.
It’s true that Rasmussen usually includes too many Republicans in their polls, because their likely voter model continues to assume that LVs are more heavily Republican, but the Pew survey revealed pretty significant pro-war sentiment across the board. Public support for attacking Iran is not something we can wish away. It is something we can work to change. Whether or not the government acts on this sentiment, it is part of the political landscape.
the first paragraph below the block quote says it all. nothing has changed. and, GOM, so was the iraq war a crime. the only way this war gains any traction is in the unlikely, at this point in time, gains of the the right in the next election to a majority. then the drumbeats will reach cacophonous levels. deficit spending and fiscal responsibility will go ‘right’ out the window.
It is part of the political landscape, but a relatively inconsequential part. I would be more interested in support for war with Iran among Democrats.
And btw, the blockquote poll numbers don’t really mean much. Comparing those two options doesn’t straightforwardly address war mongering.
excuse me, meant to say that deficit spending will be ‘right’ back in style.