I think you’re right to emphasize Dean’s policy/ideological placement reasonably in the middle of Democratic party (my summary is that he is a technocratic neolib/liberaltarian – which I don’t think is a such a bad thing), quite in contrast to Paul, who is rather far from the middle of the Republican party. Note that, IMHO, if the various votes to give the Axis of Neocons a free hand (AUMF Iraq, etc.) had been secret ballot, I think rather more Dems would have voted “no” (e.g. Edwards) – would you agree? This speaks to the cowardice of all too many Dem congressbeings (and the courage of Paul), but again that’s a difference between Dean and Paul vis a vis their respective parties (unless you also think many more GOP congressbeings would have voted against TARP etc. on a secret ballot – I don’t think so but I’d be happy to be shown evidence that I’m wrong).

Let’s assume, as seems plausible, that “what the war was for Democrats in 2004, health care legislation and bailouts will be for the Republicans in 2012″. Do you really think that anyone who will turn out to be a meaningful contender for the GOP nomination will have cast a single vote in favor of any Dem health care bill? I don’t. (compare Gephardt who was the damn Dem sponsor of HR114, also Lieberman, and as lesser evils – in that regard – Kerry and Edwards). Agreed that Romney to some degree can be tarred on healthcare, but unlike you, I don’t seem him as a real contender – I see him as more the Gephardt of 2012.

So it seems that if the 2012 primary campaign is to be a battle over issues (which strikes me as very unlikely – battles over Palinesque cultural resentment posturing and who will quintuple Gitmo and bomb bomb bomb Iran seem more probable), it will have to be over the many and various bailouts (to include TARP) and stimulus bills (the latter to include mock refusal of stimulus $ for governors). To me a more likely live issue is if the corporatocrats can’t keep a lid on the immigration restrictionists.

Your thoughts?

I know this is mainly about the nomination, but I couldn’t resist linking South Park’s spot-on analysis of the ’04 general election. NSFW.