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	<title>Comments on: What Lost Influence?</title>
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	<link>http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2009/08/03/what-lost-influence/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=what-lost-influence</link>
	<description>n. the principle of good order&#60;br /&#62;&#60;br /&#62; "Observe the strange inversion of all order and sense! Dignity debased; how vilely is the function of a consul prostituted!" ~The Craftsman</description>
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		<title>By: IM</title>
		<link>http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2009/08/03/what-lost-influence/comment-page-1/#comment-33455</link>
		<dc:creator>IM</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Aug 2009 15:30:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.amconmag.com/larison/?p=10012#comment-33455</guid>
		<description>Wait a moment. Moldova? A grand game about Moldova? Geostrategic importance? We are talking about the poorest european country here, so ignored that most europeans don&#039;t even know it exists or that it is an european country. It doesn&#039;t even borders the black sea but is land bound. 

No, moldova is not even a major occupation of roumanian foreign policy nowadays. It has probably only one goal, to join the EU and one problem, that the EU is not interested.

That whole idea would not even make sense playing risk.

On the other hand a certain american administration once believed in the strategic importance of grenada..</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wait a moment. Moldova? A grand game about Moldova? Geostrategic importance? We are talking about the poorest european country here, so ignored that most europeans don&#8217;t even know it exists or that it is an european country. It doesn&#8217;t even borders the black sea but is land bound. </p>
<p>No, moldova is not even a major occupation of roumanian foreign policy nowadays. It has probably only one goal, to join the EU and one problem, that the EU is not interested.</p>
<p>That whole idea would not even make sense playing risk.</p>
<p>On the other hand a certain american administration once believed in the strategic importance of grenada..</p>
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		<title>By: TGGP</title>
		<link>http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2009/08/03/what-lost-influence/comment-page-1/#comment-33420</link>
		<dc:creator>TGGP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:36:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.amconmag.com/larison/?p=10012#comment-33420</guid>
		<description>I meant to say &quot;to recommend&quot;. In accordance with Sturgeon&#039;s law, there are probably stacks of them not worth reading.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I meant to say &#8220;to recommend&#8221;. In accordance with Sturgeon&#8217;s law, there are probably stacks of them not worth reading.</p>
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		<title>By: TGGP</title>
		<link>http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2009/08/03/what-lost-influence/comment-page-1/#comment-33419</link>
		<dc:creator>TGGP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:34:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.amconmag.com/larison/?p=10012#comment-33419</guid>
		<description>Spengler is an &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.gnxp.com/blog/2009/05/spenglers-game.php&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;inveterate bullshitter&lt;/a&gt;, and if he ever arrives at a correct conclusion it is probably by accident.

Off-topic: I&#039;m currently reading Benson Bobrick&#039;s &quot;East of the Sun&quot;. Are you familiar with it or do you have any other histories of Russian expansion to mention?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Spengler is an <a href="http://www.gnxp.com/blog/2009/05/spenglers-game.php" rel="nofollow">inveterate bullshitter</a>, and if he ever arrives at a correct conclusion it is probably by accident.</p>
<p>Off-topic: I&#8217;m currently reading Benson Bobrick&#8217;s &#8220;East of the Sun&#8221;. Are you familiar with it or do you have any other histories of Russian expansion to mention?</p>
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		<title>By: Daniel Larison</title>
		<link>http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2009/08/03/what-lost-influence/comment-page-1/#comment-33406</link>
		<dc:creator>Daniel Larison</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2009 19:50:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.amconmag.com/larison/?p=10012#comment-33406</guid>
		<description>I think it is correct that Russia has historically had an interest in exploiting the idea of Pan-Slavism to justify its pursuit of regional hegemony to its west, but I&#039;m not sure that this has ever been related to its concern to restrain Chinese influence in the east.  There has been some recent talk that significant warming could free up Siberia for more extensive settlement, which would then serve as a way of resisting Chinese immigration and influence.  

My view is that Russian involvement in the SCO and related initiatives are attempts to come to a modus vivendi with China over Central Asia, permit China to do what it wants inside its borders and provide no pretext for renewed hostilities, while also using its relations with China and the Central Asian republics to resist U.S. influence.  In the end, it is Russia&#039;s arsenal that serves as the hard power deterrent against any potential Chinese political expansion.  However, Chinese mass immigration could one day end up creating a situation in which Russia cannot effectively control the east.  My assumption is that the official Russian view is to continue to try to prevent encirclement by rivals, and right now I think Moscow is betting that the U.S. and our allies represent the greater medium-term threat.  Demographic realities may force a realignment later, but Moscow is not setting policy with the situation 20 or 30 years hence in mind.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think it is correct that Russia has historically had an interest in exploiting the idea of Pan-Slavism to justify its pursuit of regional hegemony to its west, but I&#8217;m not sure that this has ever been related to its concern to restrain Chinese influence in the east.  There has been some recent talk that significant warming could free up Siberia for more extensive settlement, which would then serve as a way of resisting Chinese immigration and influence.  </p>
<p>My view is that Russian involvement in the SCO and related initiatives are attempts to come to a modus vivendi with China over Central Asia, permit China to do what it wants inside its borders and provide no pretext for renewed hostilities, while also using its relations with China and the Central Asian republics to resist U.S. influence.  In the end, it is Russia&#8217;s arsenal that serves as the hard power deterrent against any potential Chinese political expansion.  However, Chinese mass immigration could one day end up creating a situation in which Russia cannot effectively control the east.  My assumption is that the official Russian view is to continue to try to prevent encirclement by rivals, and right now I think Moscow is betting that the U.S. and our allies represent the greater medium-term threat.  Demographic realities may force a realignment later, but Moscow is not setting policy with the situation 20 or 30 years hence in mind.</p>
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		<title>By: Koz</title>
		<link>http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2009/08/03/what-lost-influence/comment-page-1/#comment-33404</link>
		<dc:creator>Koz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2009 19:28:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.amconmag.com/larison/?p=10012#comment-33404</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s a lot here.  Leaving aside the Goldman/Spengler angle for a moment, it seems significant to me that the Russians and the Chinese are having a detente, either for the sake of opposing the expansion of Nato or of Islam.

As I understand it, a substantial part of the Russia&#039;s understanding of its national interest has been to claim hegemony over all the Slavic peoples as a demographic score-settler to keep the Chinese out of the Asian part of Russia some decades from now.  Do you feel this is incorrect or that Russia&#039;s priorities have changed?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s a lot here.  Leaving aside the Goldman/Spengler angle for a moment, it seems significant to me that the Russians and the Chinese are having a detente, either for the sake of opposing the expansion of Nato or of Islam.</p>
<p>As I understand it, a substantial part of the Russia&#8217;s understanding of its national interest has been to claim hegemony over all the Slavic peoples as a demographic score-settler to keep the Chinese out of the Asian part of Russia some decades from now.  Do you feel this is incorrect or that Russia&#8217;s priorities have changed?</p>
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