Many much smaller nations bordering on Russia were very successful in competing with it. In fact in many cases forsaking dependence on Russian corrupt economy was the key to economic growth. This is true for most East European states. The less one depends on Russia the less problems to worry about. The EU is the biggest trading partner in the region. If one can sell his goods to the EU he’s OK. The Georgians certainly can. Turkey is another big market in the region that is readily accessible to the Georgians.

If you’re arguing that the Georgian economy will improve from its current state, then nobody will disagree with you, but Biden’s outburst specifically implied that Georgia could create a state so successful that Ossetians and Abkhazians would want to call it home. This is absurd, for the reasons that I have pointed out, and those that Daniel has explained. Excepting some incredible foreign subsidies, Georgia cannot fulfill Biden’s challenge, and can either cut ties entirely with Russia (unlikely), or can continue on its current course of simply trading and interacting with whomever is available (likely). Either way, the fates South Ossetia and Abkhazia will not be decided by Tblisi, which is what sparked this whole thing.

None of this back and forth makes Biden look any better, of course. He still poked Russia in the eye at a time when their help is most needed (Afghanistan supply routes?), presented Georgia with a challenge that is impossible, and in general reminded the world why so many countries think our politics are daft.

No its not, despite Russia’s access to the G8, which is solidified more on precedent than any real metric. After all the common European market is vastly larger than Russia’s which was mostly my point. Given the choice between access to the Russian market or the EU market, the choice will almost always be in favor of the EU.

I’m not arguing that we should just needle Russia for the hell of it. It is mostly because I think they are little, if any, of the threat that they claim to be that we should leave them in benign neglect. The continued obsession with Russia as either as an important ally or as a feared foe is unnecessary.

Russia is the biggest economy in the region, and will improve faster and more drastically than its neighbors, all things being equal. For example, when the economies of the Central American states improves a little, the economy of the US also improves, but at a far greater rate.

All this means that Biden’s remarks in Georgia are even more misguided. For Saakashvili to create a state that is the envy of the Ossetians and Abkhazians, it would require literal miracles. A country of less than five million is going to have a hard time competing with a country of more than 140 million, regardless of the population trends. The only way such a thing would happen would be huge international subsidies to Georgia. As Daniel and others have already pointed out, most states don’t believe that Georgia holds any value outside of aggrevating Russia, and that by itself isn’t worth going to war over, let alone losing boatloads of money over.

—————————————–

This whole episode is very frustrating, I think. Mostly because one of the key points in the previous presidential campaign was when McCain made the “We are all Georgians” speech. That, along with his “stay in Iraq for a undred years” gaffe and his indicisiveness in the face of economic trouble doomed his bid. Yet, here we are, and instead of “we are all Georgians” it’s “Americans care deeply about you, personally.” It’s almost as if we elected McCain, except Biden is a little taller.

This continual diversification of export markets, as well as further EU expansion, will continue to see Eastern Europe integrate its economies with the West. NATO is the least, and frankly the most irrelevant, of Russia’s future worries. They have much more to worry about in the form of future economic competition than from a European Star Wars.