First off, a Cheney nomination would have prompted a lot of criticism and anxiety from the saner precincts of the right, not just from reformist or heterodox conservatives, but also from movement types who are nonetheless poll-savvy and aware of public opinion.

The question is whether these people could have formed a critical mass. I doubt it. Most likely, such people would have been dismissed the same way those uneasy about the Palin nomination were dismissed. They would have been accused of disloyalty, of aiding the enemy and demoralizing team conservative. When Cheney did go down, as would inevitably happen, then this would only further validate and fuel these critiques, not negate them.

Now, perhaps moderate reformists would have benefited a couple years after the Cheney loss, as an unspoken and never admitted need to appeal to moderates would have quietly asserted itself. But the immediate mood post-election would have been the same as it is now.

Unfortunately, your assertion is not borne out by the recent polling data. The recent Gallup poll ( http://www.gallup.com/poll/118006/Slim-Majority-Wants-Bush-Era-Interrogations-Investigated.aspx ) shows that support for torture increases the farther right you go on the political spectrum ( see graph here: http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/lkghppp6_ew5ifat8pbseg.gif )

As as a former Republican, I hate to report this as much as anyone but the fact is that the more people’s ideology goes to “the right”, the more pro-torture they become.

“A Cheney nomination would have driven home how much of the “real conservatism” to which Ross refers is not anything substantive, but is instead a series of poses and gestures that validate the audience’s preferences and way of life.”

Both Cheney and McCain are/were at odds with the majority of conservatives preferences and way of life. Indeed the pity of it all is that the GOP in general is committed to changing our “way of life” through mass immigration, free fall globalization, and a grudging acquiescence to the post 60′s culture. I think a great many self-described conservatives vote for the GOP in the sad hope that the establishment types who run the party will be a bit less awful than the Democrats. I don’t think they parse positions as carefully as you or I do.

My guess about the last two defeats is that the public grew tired and suspicious of the war and aware of the inevitable corruption that seeps in to second term administrations. I think you are wrong about the dislike of rank and file conservatives for deficit spending and the shocking lack of conservative fiscal probatty of the part of the GOP Congress. Among my contemporaries, this facing up to the reality that “our’ political hacks are just as swinish and small as the other sides, really hurt. I think they are in the phase of digesting this now.

Necessarily missing from this analysis, is the role of independents and those of both parties who switch candidates easily. They clearly had had enough of the war and a dithering president who could not communicate with them or leave them feeling safe. So they voted for “Change.”