Looking Ahead, Ctd.
John Schwenkler has doubts about Huckabee’s ability to forge a libertarian-populist alliance in the future, and I have to acknowledge that aside from his opposition to the bailout there is not necessarily that much that would unite them around such a candidate. Economic conservatives–many of the same people who backed Romney, the candidate of universal health care and proposed subsidies for the auto industry–will keep whining objecting that Huckabee raised taxes as governor. This has not seemed to bother them about Palin, but no matter. They will say that Huckabee was very much a pro-amnesty governor, and only very recently came around to a more restrictionist position, which is perfectly true. Palin, meanwhile, essentially backs amnesty at present, but worse than that she doesn’t really seem to know what the relevant issues are except for what McCain’s people have told her. Arguably, neither one is going to be a frontrunner in the future, it is possible that neither one is going to run, and there are almost certainly preferable alternatives who have none of the baggage that Huckabee and Palin have, but of the two candidates who have genuinely excited the social and cultural conservatives who make up the overwhelming majority of the rank-and-file of the Republican Party Huckabee has more to offer. Unless, that is, Jeb Bush decides that he’s going to run, at which point the primaries will be over almost before they begin.
“Jeb Bush decides that he’s going to run”
I think anyone with that family name is going to be about as popular in establishment political circles as someone with the last name Stuart was circa 1688. I doubt the GOP will be going back to that well again.
You may be right about the Bushes, Adam, but members of the Scottish Stuart/Stewart family were still in power until 1715. Unless I am mistaken, I believe there was also some connection between the Hanoverians and the Stuarts via the Palatine line descended from James I’s daughter, but I am not positive about that.
This is the Hanoverian connection–Elizabeth, James I’s daughter, had a daughter, Sophia, who became the consort of the ruler of Hanover. It was through her that the Hanoverians had a claim to the throne upon Anne’s death, so the modern royal family can trace their ancestry back to the first Stuart ruler of the United Kingdom.
Daniel says:
I have yet to see any real proof that this type of person existed in a statistically significant number… Romney’s alleged “support” was always pundit-based, premised on the notion that Romney says the right things and so must be the guy fiscal cons will support! His delegate count ended up extremely low (less than a 10th needed for the nomination, despite his being the last significant obstacle to McCain’s victory), and he has since done nothing but continue his “dancing fraud” (your words, which I wholeheartedly endorse) routine, i.e. “is that conservative, OR LIBERAL?!?!”
As far as Palin goes, everyone seems to forget that she’s going to have to run for re-election in Alaska to stay on the scene — but her opponents now have a wealth of footage with which to concoct a barrage of negative ads. Besides, unless Republican primary voters decide to go for a nomination with NO CHANCE of winning in the general — see Palin’s numbers with swing voters and especially white middle-class women — she’s not going to be the pick.
I have yet to see any real proof that this type of person existed in a statistically significant number…
I’m not sure if Larison was referring to voters or the effect of the Club for Growth and similar interest groups dead set against any tax hikes.
His delegate count ended up extremely low (less than a 10th needed for the nomination, despite his being the last significant obstacle to McCain’s victory)
I thought that Romney’s low delegate count was an artifact of the winner-take-all nature of Republican primaries. As I recall, if Republican primaries had used proportional voting, Romney would have only been a few points behind McCain. The effect of first past the post voting combined with great variance in the population of states combined with the weird primary calendar greatly magnifies small discrepancies in voter preferences into massive discrepancies in delegate counts. You may see that as a feature or a bug, but either way, citing delegate counts isn’t a good way to argue that Romney was completely rejected by the primary electorate.
“but her opponents now have a wealth of footage with which to concoct a barrage of negative ads.”
More important is the steep drop in oil prices. She has been able to put off a lot of hard budgetary choices as governor due to the windfall of revenue from oil/gas production.
The GOP base really is intent on committing electoral suicide, isn’t it? I mean, Palin would be a DISASTER, possibly of Mondale-like proportions – barring a series of huge Obama screw-ups, I’d be surprised if she did better than 40% in a general election. And then the thing with Huckabee is that while he is actually a really skilled politician who COULD run as a reformist and put himself forward in a way that would win over the media and appeal to independents, his best shot to win the primary is to campaign as the “Christian leader” candidate and say exactly the sorts of things that make libertarians and other swing voters so uneasy about him. In both cases – Huckabee especially, Palin obviously less so – it’s a shameful waste of political talent, and the prevailing attitude evinces a total obliviousness to the ways that Christian conservatives and irreligious libertarians used to be able to work together. Any party with even the POSSIBILITY of nominating Sarah Palin or Jeb Bush in three years’ time is a party that deserves a long, long timeout …
Consider Jindal, who’s book-smart, by the way.
“Brown is the new pink.”
@GOM -
Line. Googling your catchphrase is reasonably serendipitous.
AFAICT Jindal is smart in almost every way, not just book. And I agree that he’s probably the best “true” socon candidate on the decade horizon. Young enough to not necessarily be averse to being VP for Huck ’12?
Two problems:
1) While he plays to the politics of aspiration beautifully, I’m not sure how well he can play to resentment. I’d like to think it beneath him even if he’s technically capable of it.
2) He’s really going to have to work on his wink to keep Lowry pumped up.
Do y’all think we really are to the point where being Catholic isn’t a meaningful disadvantage for the crucial hardcore socon activist base? It didn’t seem to hurt Santorum any, but I read some analyses that suggested it was still a drag on Brownback in terms of endorsements when it might have mattered.
I think Brownback was running into a couple of problems. First, he was running against Huckabee, who had the inside track with a lot of evangelical social conservatives. Second, even though he had been an evangelical before he became Catholic and he retained connections with evangelicals in Kansas, his conversion probably did not help him with these same people. Jindal is a Catholic convert from a non-Christian background, which I think might actually work in his favor with several different kinds of Christian audiences. If Jindal and Huckabee run at the same time, we could see a repeat of the Brownback-Huckabee clash in Iowa.
Thanks Daniel -
And yeah, I understand that Brownback’s crossing the Tiber made him a heretic from the True Faith ™ whereas Jindal is moving in the right direction and the anti-Catholics can still hope he will eventually undergo Reformation (g).
Has Jindal talked about his path to conversion? From his temperament I’d expect it to be more gradual and intellectual like yours and Obama’s rather than the sudden, overwhelming emotion which is at least the stereotype of conversions into Evangelicalism. If so, I can see the Wrong Type of Conversion playing badly, almost at a subconscious level.
Do you think Jindal would have a chance competing directly against Huck in the 12 primaries (assuming Palin is off the scene by then)? The moneycons don’t have any animus against Jindal AFAIK.
A Jindal and Obama fight would be extremely sweet in 2012. On the other hand, Jindal is extremely intelligent but he does strike me more as a technocrat. He is not as charismatic as Huckabee and he does not connect on a visceral level (at least, I have not seen it yet) – something that is important for his nomination. Like Obama he is really really thin in a “I am starving” way and he has a really goofy smile.
His ancestry might also pose a problem. Despite Obama’s foreignness, he looks and claims an African American heritage which does help placing him. African Americans are considered more authentically American than Asian Indians. I also doubt he would be able to get past the primaries and may face a Romney problem.
Just curious, are we on the verge of electing our first Catholic vice president? Have there been any thusfar?
Good question. I believe the answer is no. As I have reminded by commenters in the past, Goldwater had a Catholic running mate, and of course Ferraro was a Catholic, but I believe this will be the first time that we will have a Catholic elected VP.
I will root for Palin as the 2012 nominee, because she will flare out in first class fashion, and then maybe the Republicans can put forth someone who is serious about governance of the entire nation. Someone with a real reputation for leadership, and whose integrity is not in question. Someone who will balance out the Democratic Congress that will certainly be a little overindulgent without a guiding force from Obama.