But how will the public at large view the debate? I’m lousy at predicting that, but I think that there is a chance that the “clueless” meme has (rightfully) taken such strong hold that anything short of a shockingly well informed performance by Palin will merely reinforce the impression that she can’t cut it. Even sans serious gaffes.

At the beginning of the campaign, people were willing to cut her some slack. Aside from her remaining admirers, who are already firm McCain voters, that is no longer true. If she tries to pull the same kind of “the voters don’t care about policy details” crap that she (apparently successfully) deployed in the Alaska debates is not goign to cut it with persuadable voters at this point. (I mean, they DON’T care about policy details, and they don’t necessarily like to hear the same from their politicians. But they DO like to think that their politicians are knowledgeable about those issues.

Or so I hope. Not even so much because I want McCain to lose, but even moreso because I agree with Daniel’s 12:12 post. It would indeed be a devastating indictment of our system if voters were favorably impressed by the kind of minimally coherent performance that appears to be the best that she is capable of.

Yes way, I think. Your TAS colleague Matt Feeney has a thread up asking how people think the debate will play out. Let me just repeat what I said there:

I think the bar for Palin is now set so low that any performance above the level of “drooling and gibbering” will be scored as exceeding expectations. That will probably be enough to stop the negative impact she’s had on the ticket’s numbers the last week or two, but not reverse it. Still, stanching the bleeding will be something, after which Palin can be conveniently hustled off to controlled, friendly venues, never to take a question or interview from the media again.

Turbulence, you’re probably right that this is what the poll result means. That’s why I don’t quite understand why the debate would be cosidered very important. When I look at that, it makes it sound as if the debate is critical or decisive in determining a voter’s preference.

I have an alternative explanation. It might mean that many of those people already know which way they’re going to vote and expect the debate to confirm they’re the wisdom of their plans. After all, I know exactly how I’m going to vote and I expect the debate tonight will illustrate why my choices are correct, but I don’t plan on changing my vote no matter what happens tonight.