Comments on: Something To Bear In Mind

By: Interesting post on Sarah Palin « Nathancontramundi

Interesting post on Sarah Palin « Nathancontramundi — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 20:57:27 +0000

[...] Interesting post on Sarah Palin Posted on 6 September 2008 by nathancontramundi A tip of the hat goes to Larison for this. [...]

By: nhgriffin003

nhgriffin003 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:47:53 +0000

You make good points, as usual, about likely fates for VP candidates, but I’ve never seen such enthusiasm for a choice before. Might the usual rules change, as the base seems far more excited about her than McCain? Generally VPs will bolster support of a candidate by filling in weaknesses. Instead, Palin has upstaged and eclipsed McCain. I feel we are in uncharted territory with the enthusiasm gap turned upside down, making the news (and possibly the election) about Palin, not McCain. There was a vacuum in GOP leadership for the next generation and McCain and the base are enabling her to fill it. Again, I feel that any socially conservative unknown would have inspired this reaction and I’m not sure she is the right person for this role, considering the ongoing investigation.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 22:37:11 +0000

Here’s why I think she is not going to be the heir apparent. She may be in the running, but I think she will get edged out because her career will be so closely tied to McCain. Assuming a McCain win in November, she will probably be the incumbent VP running for President in ’12 or ’16 who will have to answer for all of the blunders and policy compromises of the administration she served. Obviously, if events transpire that thrust her into the Presidency, she will be the incumbent and will have been made into the leader of the party by default, so that would change things. However, assuming McCain lives through either one or two terms, she will be stuck with what will probably be a more unpopular administration and will face a much stiffer challenge in the primaries than Gore did. Conservative discontent with McCain will re-emerge with a vengeance, and Palin will end up being the target of their ire; either Romney or Huckabee, or perhaps both, will see an opportunity to serve as the rallying point for conservative dissatisfaction, and other governors and Senators may see an opportunity as well. If McCain will have been in power for four or even eight years, the logic of choosing someone from outside Washington to be the GOP nominee in ’12 or ’16 will be even more compelling than it is today, and the demand for a break with the 12 or 16 years of a Bush-McCain continuity will be great. Certainly Palin’s chances as party leader are finished if McCain loses this time or if he tries and fails in seeking re-election in ’12. One of the other reasons I feel reasonably confident that she is not a future leader of the GOP is that I think her addition to the ticket will still ultimately prove to be a net loser and a contributing factor in McCain’s defeat this year, thus making future speculation moot. With the exception of FDR, who is the exception to most political rules, losing VP nominees simply do not return to dominate their parties.

By: nhgriffin003

nhgriffin003 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 22:19:32 +0000

Why do you consider Palin to not be in the running as the torchbearer in 4 or 8 years from now? I don’t disagree with you, I’d just like to hear your reasoning on this. My feeling is that McCain could have picked ANY relatively unknown pro-life fanatic and they would have inspired the fervid support that Palin received. While her personal stories and perceived scandals did exacerbate the situation and allow the right to fight the media more than any other choice, I still feel that this reaction would have been comparable if Jindal or equivalent was chosen.