Comments on: Georgia

By: conradg

conradg — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 05:25:10 +0000

I don’t think there’s anything inherently wrong with extending NATO’s security system beyond the Atlantic nations. Silly, perhaps, given the name, but not wrong. What would be wrong would be to extend membership to countries that are as screwed up as Georgia is, and wish to use NATO as a point of pressure against their enemies. Using possible NATO membership as a carrot to help move countries like Georgia into responsible foreign relations with their neighbors is a good idea, but not until that is well established. As I’ve said, we should even hold out possible NATO membership to Russia, which would I think be far more important than including Georgia. There is no inherent reason for any hostile relationship with Russia, and there never was one apart from the Communist abberration. The natural relationship between Russia and the United States ought to be a friendly one with many mutual interests in common.

By: Grumpy Old Man

Grumpy Old Man — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 21:21:22 +0000

Georgia in NATO?

Look at a map. It’s the ultimate in geopolitical goofiness.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 20:45:04 +0000

Perhaps that is how he thinks of it, but I regard inviting Georgia into NATO to be inherently undesirable. Certainly I think he would say that membership depends on Georgia meeting certain criteria. In theory, McCain would say the same, with the difference being that he thinks they have already met those criteria. For the most part, once states have reached the stage of being permitted to apply for membership NATO has not, to my knowledge, subsequently rejected them. Their entry may be delayed, but it is not usually prevented. So I view the offer of applying for membership to be a serious mistake.

By: conradg

conradg — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 20:40:58 +0000

Daniel,

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Obama’s position on Georgian membership in NATO is that they be given the opportunity to apply for NATO membership, not that they should automatically be approved for membership. It’s my impression that he doesn’t want to exclude Georgia from any possible future membership in NATO, but that he sees it as part of a fairly long process of working out its problems with Russia and demonstrating its suitability for NATO membership over time. Obama’s position seems to be one of holding out the possibility of NATO membership as a carrot by which to entice Georgia into adopting a more sane relationship with Russia, not a way to stick it to Russia by hiding under NATO’s umbrella.

By: Grumpy Old Man

Grumpy Old Man — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 23:49:55 +0000

Amen.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 23:13:10 +0000

It is very sad and tragic, and it didn’t have to happen. Most wars don’t. I would hope that the Moscow Patriarchate would make use of whatever influence it has to counsel an end to hostilities, and failing that I hope other Orthodox hierarchs offer themselves as mediators. The governments may ignore them or try to manipulate them, but the Orthodox Church here, in Russia and in Georgia should make a strong appeal for peace and aid for the Ossetian refugees (and Georgian refugees, if there are any). I will have more to say along these lines later.

By: Grumpy Old Man

Grumpy Old Man — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 23:06:48 +0000

I find it sad that two (at least nomnally) Orthodox countries are fighting and are on the brink of full-scale war.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 22:21:24 +0000

But Georgia hasn’t been demonstrating a sane foreign policy for the last four years. This conflict didn’t come out of nowhere, and Obama had to know that or ought to have known that when he took the position he has held until now. If he changes his view on Georgian membership, I will be happy to hear it and I will be glad to highlight that as evidence of Obama’s better judgement.

By: conradg

conradg — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 22:18:08 +0000

I don’t think Obama’s earlier statement that Georgia should at least have the opportunity to pursue NATO membership is wrong on the merits. If Georgia were pursuing a sane and peaceful relationship with Russia, then it would be fine. But clearly it has not been doing that, and so it’s “pursuit” of NATO membership is falling way short of the mark. There’s no sense that Obama was calling for an unconditional acceptance of Georgia into NATO, but a highly conditional one, based on Georgia’s demonstration of a sane foreign policy, which this episode dramatically shows is not the case. I don’t see Obama now calling for Georgian admission into NATO in order to protect it from Russia. Quite the opposite, it seems.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 21:40:17 +0000

Predictably, the wise refusal of the Europeans to bring Georgia into NATO is being spun as appeasement by the usual suspects, even though their golden boy is the one who started the war. Amazing. This is rather like the impeccable logic that says that Hussein made us invade Iraq. Permitting the status quo to continue without provoking irredentist warfare has now become appeasement.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 21:19:56 +0000

I agree that Obama’s initial response is wiser and less inflammatory than McCain’s, but his general views concerning Georgia, NATO and Russia do not give me any reassurance about what he would do in the future. Saakashvili was bragging just a few months ago when the Democratic primary was still going on that all three remaining candidates were his chums, so he had no problem with any of them winning.

By: tedschan

tedschan — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 20:43:15 +0000

Obama wants us to broker a cease-fire? Or some other country?

By: Grumpy Old Man

Grumpy Old Man — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 20:31:29 +0000

“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds,” said Emerson.

In this case, there’s apparently a foolish inconsistency. As Daniel has been saying, BHO’s a liberal interventionist.

Still, BHO’s most recent statement makes more sense than Col. Kong’s.

By: Adam01

Adam01 — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 20:22:15 +0000

“Obamaâ€™s callâ€“try to broker a cease-fire and a stand-down, happens to be exactly right.”

Or not:

http://www.barackobama.com/2008/07/23/statement_of_senator_obama_on_1.php

â€œAs I stated in April this year, I am committed to upholding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia. This commitment has long been a fundamental building block of U.S. policy, and it will not change under the Obama administration. I also affirm Georgiaâ€™s right to pursue NATO membership. This aspiration in no way threatens the legitimate defense interests of Georgiaâ€™s neighbors.â€

Giving Saakashvili the notion that NATO membership would be a possibility and that the NATO military umbrella of protection would cover Saakashvili’s lunatic provocations in South Ossettia greatly exacerbated this problem. This has been a conspicuously bi-partisan disaster.

By: Grumpy Old Man

Grumpy Old Man — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 19:26:44 +0000

The neocon maniacs want us to confront Russia over this. McCain is just as dangerous. Obama's call--try to broker a cease-fire and a stand-down, happens to be exactly right.