Going West
Dan notes that Obama is planning to campaign a lot out West, perhaps hoping to exploit the spoiling power of the Barr-Root juggernaut, but it’s worth bearing in mind what Ambinder says on this point:
But the truth is the ONLY way, given the electoral college map that Obama is presented with, he can win the presidency if he loses Ohio or Pennsylvania by winning the West — by winning at least four of these states: New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon, Nevada and Washington. He cannot afford NOT to fight for the West. If he doesn’t fight for the West, he loses.
That’s very much in line with what I was saying earlier this month.
perhaps hoping to exploit the spoiling power of the Barr-Root juggernaut
I hope I’m reading that tongue firmly implanted in cheek.
electoral college map
The only State I would question would be New Mexico, given the older demographic and similarities with Arizona. At this point, I would think him winning CO, OR, NV, and WA would be more probable than him losing both PA and OH. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. It would also help to know the assumptions going into the predictions.
Good thing he’s going to win all seven of those states. It’s really strange that we’re even listing Oregon and Washington as states he might potentially not win. Given current polling, past results, and common sense, does anyone seriously think McCain’s a threat in either of those places?