Comments on: Strange Days http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=strange-days-3 n. the principle of good order<br /><br /> "Observe the strange inversion of all order and sense! Dignity debased; how vilely is the function of a consul prostituted!" ~The Craftsman Fri, 10 Feb 2012 02:25:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: davegnyc http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/comment-page-1/#comment-11095 davegnyc Tue, 27 May 2008 10:31:07 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/#comment-11095 <i>If Obama doesn’t clear 300 electoral votes in November, I will be extremely surprised.</i> I agree. It will not be close. If Obama doesn’t clear 300 electoral votes in November, I will be extremely surprised.

I agree. It will not be close.

]]> By: General Mobius http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/comment-page-1/#comment-11091 General Mobius Tue, 27 May 2008 02:40:52 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/#comment-11091 It may be worth noting that Intrade still has Obama at about 58% to win. McCain's at 37% and Clinton's at 6%. That may or may not mean anything at all, but current polling also may or may not mean anything. There are a lot of data points here. It may be worth noting that Intrade still has Obama at about 58% to win. McCain’s at 37% and Clinton’s at 6%. That may or may not mean anything at all, but current polling also may or may not mean anything. There are a lot of data points here.

]]> By: General Mobius http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/comment-page-1/#comment-11090 General Mobius Tue, 27 May 2008 02:33:46 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/#comment-11090 Yeah, I don't buy that. He has been taking broadsides both from McCain and Clinton for months now, while Clinton has largely been left alone to do whatever she wants. In an environment where Obama is being painted by Clinton as an enemy of the working class and is largely not fighting back because he's trying to take aim at McCain, I don't think there's anything weird about the fact that she appears stronger right now. But if she were the nominee, every Vince Foster/Whitewater/whatever story would bubble right back up and torpedo her just as effectively as she is torpedoing Obama right now. She's appears to be a stronger general election candidate right now largely because she's incapable of becoming one. The problem with trying to read these pattern tea leaves is precisely that it's hard to figure out which ones matter and which ones don't. Will Obama rally his troops or does his race matter in a way that destabilizes that? Do Democrats need to win West Virginia or is it okay to abandon people who are avowedly racist and twice voted for George Bush because he's so good at playing a rube on TV? Obviously I'm an Obama fan and am inclined to read the tea leaves in his favor, but I honestly believe John McCain is such a disastrously bad candidate that there's no reason to get so worried. If Obama doesn't clear 300 electoral votes in November, I will be extremely surprised. Yeah, I don’t buy that. He has been taking broadsides both from McCain and Clinton for months now, while Clinton has largely been left alone to do whatever she wants. In an environment where Obama is being painted by Clinton as an enemy of the working class and is largely not fighting back because he’s trying to take aim at McCain, I don’t think there’s anything weird about the fact that she appears stronger right now. But if she were the nominee, every Vince Foster/Whitewater/whatever story would bubble right back up and torpedo her just as effectively as she is torpedoing Obama right now. She’s appears to be a stronger general election candidate right now largely because she’s incapable of becoming one.

The problem with trying to read these pattern tea leaves is precisely that it’s hard to figure out which ones matter and which ones don’t. Will Obama rally his troops or does his race matter in a way that destabilizes that? Do Democrats need to win West Virginia or is it okay to abandon people who are avowedly racist and twice voted for George Bush because he’s so good at playing a rube on TV?

Obviously I’m an Obama fan and am inclined to read the tea leaves in his favor, but I honestly believe John McCain is such a disastrously bad candidate that there’s no reason to get so worried. If Obama doesn’t clear 300 electoral votes in November, I will be extremely surprised.

]]> By: Daniel Larison http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/comment-page-1/#comment-11088 Daniel Larison Tue, 27 May 2008 01:54:06 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/#comment-11088 Sure, that's been the pattern. People in both parties traditionally tend to rally to the nominees in the fall. I do find it intriguing that whenever past patterns vindicate Obama's chances, past patterns are relevant and are considered likely to be repeated, but when they point towards the opposite someone is always there to remind us how atypical and strange this election cycle is. In any case, it seems clear that this claim that Democrats will rally back to Obama does not undermine the larger point that he appears to be the weaker general election candidate relative to Clinton. He has more rallying of his own partisans to do, which takes time he should be using for winning votes outside his party. Sure, that’s been the pattern. People in both parties traditionally tend to rally to the nominees in the fall. I do find it intriguing that whenever past patterns vindicate Obama’s chances, past patterns are relevant and are considered likely to be repeated, but when they point towards the opposite someone is always there to remind us how atypical and strange this election cycle is. In any case, it seems clear that this claim that Democrats will rally back to Obama does not undermine the larger point that he appears to be the weaker general election candidate relative to Clinton. He has more rallying of his own partisans to do, which takes time he should be using for winning votes outside his party.

]]> By: General Mobius http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/comment-page-1/#comment-11087 General Mobius Tue, 27 May 2008 01:46:23 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/26/strange-days-3/#comment-11087 Take a look at this: http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-sides25-2008may25,0,4387451.story Take a look at this:

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-sides25-2008may25,0,4387451.story

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