http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2008/05/24/defection-and-indecision/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=defection-and-indecision n. the principle of good order<br /><br /> "Observe the strange inversion of all order and sense! Dignity debased; how vilely is the function of a consul prostituted!" ~The Craftsman Fri, 10 Feb 2012 02:25:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2008/05/24/defection-and-indecision/comment-page-1/#comment-11038 conradg Sat, 24 May 2008 23:41:23 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/24/defection-and-indecision/#comment-11038 As mentioned in an earlier post, most of these democratic defections to McCain appear to be older Democratic women - Hillary's core of support, in other words. I'd suggest that they are giving a warped impression of what the Obama-McCain dynamic will be in the fall. Most of these women are, I think, showing their loyalty to Hillary right now by not offering their support to Obama. Once she gets out of the race, however, I think this dynamic will change. Most of these women will return to the Dem fold by the fall, and vote for Obama. These are of course probably the easiest people for Obama to get, since they are a big part of the Democratic base, and there is nothing inherent in Obama's character or policies that alienates women. It's merely that right now there's a huge internal loyalty gap that's affecting Obama's polling numbers against McCain. Once that is over and laid to rest, I think Obama will easily recapture most of these votes. On that basis, I think Obama is generally polling about 5-8 pts below his actual general election strength, and he should start to show that if Hillary gets out fo the race in early June. If she does not, if she fights a bitter battle all the way into September, and creates a lasting resentment among her core supporters towards Obama, that could put his win in deep jeopardy. But doing that would also be the equivalent of a political suicide bombing for Hillary. As mentioned in an earlier post, most of these democratic defections to McCain appear to be older Democratic women – Hillary’s core of support, in other words. I’d suggest that they are giving a warped impression of what the Obama-McCain dynamic will be in the fall. Most of these women are, I think, showing their loyalty to Hillary right now by not offering their support to Obama. Once she gets out of the race, however, I think this dynamic will change. Most of these women will return to the Dem fold by the fall, and vote for Obama. These are of course probably the easiest people for Obama to get, since they are a big part of the Democratic base, and there is nothing inherent in Obama’s character or policies that alienates women. It’s merely that right now there’s a huge internal loyalty gap that’s affecting Obama’s polling numbers against McCain. Once that is over and laid to rest, I think Obama will easily recapture most of these votes. On that basis, I think Obama is generally polling about 5-8 pts below his actual general election strength, and he should start to show that if Hillary gets out fo the race in early June. If she does not, if she fights a bitter battle all the way into September, and creates a lasting resentment among her core supporters towards Obama, that could put his win in deep jeopardy. But doing that would also be the equivalent of a political suicide bombing for Hillary.

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