Comments on: It’s A Good Thing Arkansas Doesn’t Matter, Either

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Sun, 18 May 2008 01:59:55 +0000

Yes, it was WV. I double-checked, because it sounded wrong when I first wrote it, but Virginia went against Carter both times. I was wrong about Colorado. They voted for Clinton in ’92.

By: Zarathustra

Zarathustra — Sun, 18 May 2008 01:53:35 +0000

On second thought, that was West Virginia. Oops.

By: Zarathustra

Zarathustra — Sun, 18 May 2008 01:49:41 +0000

I believe the last Democrat Colorado backed for President was LBJ, and I think the same goes for Virginia.

Virginia was won by Carter in 1976.

By: davegnyc

davegnyc — Fri, 16 May 2008 10:28:08 +0000

Thing is, I would rather have McCain than Hillary, so I not sure why this is supposed to make an Obama supporter change his mind?

I will take McCain mildly more immigration control stance over Hillary’s pro-war, pro-immigration stance.

By: conradg

conradg — Fri, 16 May 2008 05:00:04 +0000

This argument is getting old. Yes, there’s some states Clinton is able to flip, there’s some Obama is able to flip. If your point is that Arkansas makes Clinton a better overall candidate than Obama, your analytic abilities are failing you. All the states matter. Your argument rests on the notion that some small states matter more than others. Not a very good approach. Obama has a 50 state strategy, not a 51-49 strategy, which is the best that Clinton can hope for. Recent polls show Obama leading McCain by 4-7 points, bouncing back from his lows.

Also, are you sure Clinton can beat McCain in WV in the general? She won’t be running against a liberal eltisti black man with a crazy pastor. She’s be running against a Scotts-Irish war hero with vastly more experience than she has. And republicans get to vote too. Might not be so pretty.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Thu, 15 May 2008 21:28:56 +0000

Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. If I were an Obamaite, I wouldn’t want to have to bank on Obama flipping two states that haven’t voted for a Democrat for President since well before I was born. No doubt both CO and VA have been trending Democratic in recent years, but then so have Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and that isn’t necessarily putting them away for him. I believe the last Democrat Colorado backed for President was LBJ, and I think the same goes for Virginia.

While I’m on this topic, I would also note that even Adlai Stevenson carried West Virginia and Kentucky the first time around, and this patten has held up through Clinton’s ’92 run. This was a common occurrence until very recently.

Also, if he loses WV, KY and AR, and wins only one of those two, he comes out behind in the electoral voting. Those three account for 19 votes. Only with Colorado and Virginia together does he come away with a net gain, and I doubt very much that he is going to win states with large military presences such as Colorado and Virginia against McCain.

By: Adam01

Adam01 — Thu, 15 May 2008 20:58:46 +0000

Obama will see your WV, KY, AR, and raise you one CO or VA.

Now if OH and or PA acts in November like they did recently, say hello to President McCain