A black newcomer came out of nowhere and has virtually taken away the Democratic nomination from the strongest front-runner for the nomination since, well, just about ever. He did so on his own virtues, rather than preying upon her weaknesses.

Well, that and the fact that that front-runner’s campaign was a monument to incompetence and the Dems’ primary system a quirky, largely caucus-driven affair that favored frenetic activism over traditional machine politics. Oh, and two crucial states where he would almost certainly have lost were stripped of their delegates, and his opponent was a short, shrill, unattractive woman who was panned as a bitch every time she tried to play tough. I know the Republicans are broke, dispirited, and politically in the wrong, but there are many ways in which McCain is going to be a considerably more challenging opponent than Clinton was.

Now, the notion that he can’t do this again, faced with the current difficulties of his campaign, seems premature and wishful thinking by those who underestimated him the first time around, such as yourself. It’s obviously a difficult poitical task, but he’s shown himself capable of surrmounting huge and difficult obstacles before, so it’s far from “over”. In fact, the same virtues that got him this far are still there. And his opponent in the fall has huge weaknesses as well. So it wouldn’t surprise me if all these prognostications prove embarrassingly wrong in the fall. Certainly, the notion of a McGovern-style 60/40 blowout seems absurd.

As for Democrats “usually” polling strong early and losing late, the last young, well-spoken Democrat with lots of charisma to win the White House, Bill Clinton in 1992 (who is the candidate most like Obama, not McGovern), was losing horribly in the polls all the way through the spring and summer. In fact, he was doing so badly he was actually third in the three-way race with Perot for a long stretch. It wasn’t until the post-convention surge that he took lead in the national polls, as voters realized they really did want a young, positive, charismatic change candidate. (All of which Obama is, while McGovern was only offering “change”, with a negative, uncharismatic, dog-eared variety.)

Indeed, far from every place he visits becoming “Obama Country” the antipathy and distrust grows and grows. Now, McCain could have another one of his moments and spout off, in a debate with Obama, that endless war is good for the national character or whatever, but his campaign staff seems to have done a fairly good job of keeping him on a leash so far.