So I’d modify my position. Initially, no one cared about Obama’s statement. But if any charge gets repeated often enough, and interpeted through a divisive, negative lens, and made the focus of political campaigns for two weeks, and gets piled in with a whole bunch of other charges, well, it eventually has an effect. This is the politics of the petty negative winning out over substance. Relentless repetition creates a momentum all its own. We’ve seen this before.

But harping on the ARG poll seems silly, in that it’s clearly an outlier from one of the least respected pollsters out there. No one else has numbers anything like that.

We’ll see how it turns out, of course. Hillary tends to gain support from last minute deciders, so It’s probably Hillary by eight.

I’ll stick my neck out far enough for the voters to chop through it–Hillary takes PA with a margin in the high single digits. The Iran-Iraq war, as Mr. Roach calls it, continues.