The Aftermath
The number with an unfavorable view of Obama has risen from 44% on Thursday to 50% today. Among White voters, Obama is now viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 54%.
Looked at from a slightly longer perspective, Obama’s overall favorable ratings peaked at 56% on February 21, shortly after he won the Wisconsin Primary. At that point, Clinton began raising questions about Obama as part of the campaign that ultimately enabled her to win the Texas and Ohio Primaries. Since then, Obama’s net favorability ratings have fallen seventeen points (from plus 14 points on February 21 to minus 3 points today). ~Rasmussen
In their daily presidential tracking poll, McCain has opened up his widest lead over Obama yet at six points (48-42) nationally, and he retains a net positive fav rating. Most troubling for the Obama campaign has to be the data showing that Wright’s remarks make 56% less likely to vote for Obama against just 11% who are more likely. That’s obviously an enormous blow, and frankly larger than what I thought it would be. 44% of Democrats are less likely to vote for him because of this, and in a real blow to Obama’s coalition 57% of independents say they are less likely to vote for him (of course, 70% of Republicans say the same). The people who would make for interesting interview subjects are the 7% of Republicans who say they are more likely to vote for Obama because of the remarks–who are these people? Interestingly, aside from conservatives (74% are less likely), Wright’s remarks are most damaging to Obama among 18-29 year olds (62% say they are less likely to vote for Obama now, and only 12% are more likely) and voters for whom religion and faith are either very (67%/10%) or somewhat important (62%/11%). Black (18% less, 29% more) and secular voters (those for whom religion and faith are “not at all important”) are the least affected by Wright’s comments (just 23% are less likely, 17% more likely).
This may be the beginning of a hemorrhaging of support for Obama, which is pretty much in line with what I said a month ago:
Once he becomes better known to the broader electorate, his numbers will start tanking.
And a bit earlier still:
…if the nominee is Obama the Democrats are going to have their own electability problems.
In this post, I floated the prospect of a 1964-like landslide if Obama were the Democratic nominee (with Obama playing the role of Goldwater), which may still overstate things, but not necessarily by that much.
If Obama survives this (which I think he will), it will make him a better candidate in the general. Better to get the bad news out early.
Daniel,
Obama’s favorable ratings aren’t falling because “people are getting to know him better.” He’s hurting because he’s being slammed with crap and fakery and the exploitation of false fears. He’s actually less well known that he was, in that what’s he’s now known for has less do to with who he is than the man we knew before. The truth is that as he actually gets better known to people, his numbers will rise back up again. Why? Because he’s a very good man, and people will get to know that the more they actually get exposed to him.
And they said that Ron Paul supporters were a cult.
[...] Of course, Mr. Henley is also free to critique my posts and claim that I don’t know what I’m talking about. That’s also something that bloggers do. But I am quite sure that I said nothing of the kind. If anything, I have consistently underestimated the importance of the Wright controversy, because I didn’t think it was that new or shocking; I freely admitted that I had been following the Obama campaign more closely than a lot of “ordinary people” and so wasn’t gauging reaction to it very well. When polling started showing that damage had been done, at least temporarily, I took note of that, but prior to that I made no such bold claims about “the end of Obama.” I have been tracking state polls that show Obama falling behind McCain all over the country, but that may prove to be temporary. I have assumed that as Obama became better known to the general electorate, his numbers would decline, and I think the last two months have supported that assumption. I don’t think anyone could claim that my response to his Philadelphia speech belonged to the “Obama is doomed!” genre; it was, at most, a claim that Obama had some serious potential problems on his hands. The controversy really was damaging to Obama, but I am having difficulty finding the place where I expressed confidence that Obama was finished. Of course, it could be that I have no idea what “ordinary people” think, but that doesn’t mean that these remarks aren’t going to be politically damaging. They would be irrelevant if they did not appear to undermine one of the principal claims of the campaign (i.e., Obama’s supposed respect for opposing views) and confirm previous statements by the candidate about these kinds of questions. [...]