What Obama also has is an appeal to rational-minded men, including moderates and republicans, that Kerry and Gore lacked. He’s done better with independents than McCain has when they have competed against one another in simultaneous open primaries. What isn’t much noted by the press is that the electorate in the Democratic primaries has been 57-43 female/male, and even with that disadvantage against a much more famous and popular female candidate with the party machinery behind her, he’s more than held his own, and actually won more contests, won more votes, and won more delegates. In the general election the split is 50-50, so his strong showing among males is going to only get better. I think he can do very well to narrow the traditional gap the Dems have among men.

As for the elderyly, I don’t really know, but I do know that painting McCain as the well-respected old war hero with 50 years of experience serving his country is a winning strategy for Obama. It certainly was the way to treat Dole in 96.

Well, my mama is a typical Dem, and she’s voting Obama. So that cancels out your mama. And my son’s friends in France all think Obama’s going to win, so that cancels out SIngapore. Got anything brilliant to add to that analysis?

What I wish is that these nutjob anti-Obama people would stop pretending that all Obama supporters think he’s the messiah and can walk on water. It’s putrid denigrating crap, is what it is, dude. You obviously can’t think your way out of a paper bag, so cut out the condescension. I merely think, audaciously enough, that Obama can win, and that he’d make a better President than either Hillary or McCain. It’s not all that high a bar to jump over.

Even more suprised that in a blog this well written and logical, many of your readers think it is “ok” to post nothing more than namby pamby clap trap.

Such as “He only needs Hillary’s pro-forma support to help the young and middle-aged women who supported her to feel good about Obama, and that shouldn’t be a problem.”

Really, how would you know that?

Have you presented any evidence to support this???

And then there’s this: “Good point. But I don’t think Obama will lose the senior vote by much, or where it will count the most” again, where is the evidence to back this up?

Two interesting pieces of anecdotal evidence that suggest Obama may not be the Dem savior many of your readers may think he is.

1) My mother is a typical Dem voter, she has never voted for a Republican in her life (although she did vote for Perot in 1992). She hates the Iraq War, thinks Bush is an awful president etc….guess who she’s going to vote for if Hillary doesn’t get the nod. I’ll give you a hint, its not St. Obama!

Apparently from what she tells me, alot of her Westside Jewish gal pals in Los Angeles feel the same way.

2) I’m getting my masters of public policy here in Singapore and my classmates (I am the only American) are almost to a man, anti-Iraq and anti-Bush, the split in who they would vote for is 1/3 Obama, 1/3 McCain/ and 1/3 Hillary. But, when we polled to see who they think would win if it were McCain v. Obama then only three out of a class of 64 thought Obama would win- whereas 28 thought Hillary could beat McCain.

I wish Obama supporters stopped acting like their candidate walked on water and realized that to win an election in Ill v. Alan Keyes is really not the same as winning the presidency.

Grow up!

But a recent Ross Douthat post I think is also relevant here. The natures of these particular candidates are such that the Red State/Blue State dichotomy of the last few cycles may well be significantly scrambled. McCain may be more competitive in some “blue” states, but Obama may end up more competitive in some “red” states.

Re the elderly, I think that that is really the one Democratic subgroup where the danger is greatest for Omaba. Maybe it’s race, maybe it’s social issues, maybe the age of the candidates, who knows, but it could make a real difference. Though McCain’s social security position could (fairly or not) help Obama there, once it becomes better known.

Except that that demographic is pretty solidly Democratic. If Obama is losing that slice of the electorate, he has a problem.

I agree that McCain gets the senior vote, since he’s in their age group. But as with Clinton, this is not exactly the deciding demographic. It’s exactly where Obama wants McCain’s appeal to lie. If he can marginalize McCain as the candidate of the eldery and infirm, it’s going to be a landslide.

He only needs Hillary’s pro-forma support to help the young and middle-aged women who supported her to feel good about Obama, and that shouldn’t be a problem.

“Hillary’s supporters will have long since given up their disappointment, and she’ll campaign for him in any case.”

There is a certain, irreducable core of Hillary’s support (older white women) that will not be voting for Obama. Daniel linked to a NM poll not to long ago that showed McCain beating Obama amongst seniors (65+) by double digits.

Hillary will do some pro-forma events for Obama, but nothing like active support. In her heart of hearts, the Clinton’s will be rooting for Obama to fail just like they rooted for Kerry to fail.

Strangely, however, the national polls have gone in the opposite direction, with Obama getting and even increasing a national lead against Clinton. What this suggests is that Clinton’s strategy is not working very well for her against Obama, whose numbers have been climbing head to head against Clinton, but it has been weakening Obama’s lead against McCain. McCain benefits by being the odd man out.

What does this mean foir the general election? Not much, I think. Remember first that the general is eight months off. Most of this will long be forgotten by then. There will be no Democrats attacking Obama (assuming he’s the nominee), and McCain will be going head to head without being able to stand aside and watch two rival candidates fight it out. McCain will have to live by his own campaigning skills, and from what I’ve seen, he pretty much sucks as a campaigner. He won the Republican nomination only because all the others sucked even worse than he did, and had huge, fatal flaws. This won’t be the case in the general. Obama is the best campaigner we’ve seen in decades, and Hillary’s no slouch either if she somehow miraculously pulls through.

Obama will of course carry New Jersey quite comfortably in the general. Hillary’s supporters will have long since given up their disappointment, and she’ll campaign for him in any case. McCain will be hard pressed to make a case on his own against Obama, and will rely on 527′s and nasty surrogates to go negative against Obama, but that won’t be the same as staying out of the fight. Did I say McCain is a lousy campaigner? It can’t be stressed enough. It’s hard for me to imagine the country electing a guy who looks and sounds like the Crypt-keeper against a young and vibrant guy like Obama. It’s like a reversal of the 2004 election – or 1996 for that matter. Issues and record be damned, we are a nation that identifies with its leaders, and there just aren’t enough senior citizens among us to swing things McCain’s way.