Reid Wilson has done the latest Senate race rankings and lists New Mexico at number 2, saying:
News can’t get any worse for Republicans in New Mexico. But if it can, it probably will.
This is right. I have some mixed feelings about the slow-motion implosion of the New Mexico GOP, since New Mexico has hardly benefited from seven decades of uninterrupted, virtual one-party rule from the other side, but it was unavoidable that the state parties that would suffer the most from the anti-Republican backlash are those in states where they are numerically weakest.
The most remarkable thing on the list, which wouldn’t be possible without Lott’s retirement, is that Mississippi is almost as competitive a Senate race as Maine. In addition to woes in Alaska and Mississippi, the GOP may have to start worrying about the Lone Star State. Via Rod, I see that John Cornyn’s job approval numbers are quite bad for a scandal-free incumbent. 31% say they want him re-elected, which is remarkably low. If a Democrat were to be elected to the Senate from Texas, it would be the first general election victory in such a race for them since Lloyd Bentsen won re-election in 1988. It would probably also reflect the steady demographic changes in the state resulting from mass immigration. The DSCC’s absolute best-case goal of picking up nine seats to reach a filibuster-proof majority of 60 is now looking slightly less implausible.
P.S. A September poll gave Cornyn better numbers, but showed that he is vulnerable. His approval rating, if the later polling is to be believed, has gone down pretty dramatically. Any Texans out there with an insight into why people are souring on him?
Your local Texan, here. My views are probably not very representative of the state, and I’m not exactly sure why we are so underwhelmed with Cornyn. Texans are accustomed to our senators being either patrician (Tower, Bentsen, Krueger, Hutchinson), colorful (LBJ, Ralph Yarborough, Gramm) or influential (all of the above save perhaps Krueger). Cornyn fits into none of these categories. All in all, he is pretty nondescript–about as exciting as lukewarm oatmeal. I also sense that many Texans–and not just Democrats–find President Bush to be a profound embarrassment to the state. Cornyn is seen as an all-too-eager Bush lieutenant. Personally, I was disgusted with his grandstanding with the MoveOn.org blowup after the Petraeus hearings in September.
That being said, Cornyn will win re-election. Texas Democrats are on the rise again, but it is still too soon. Part of this is indeed due to immigration and changing demographics, but part can be attributed to dissatisfaction with the GOP on the state level. We went from a corrupt but competent one-party Democratic state to an incompetent one-party Republican state. Given time, the end result may be a true two-party state. Watch Senator Hutchinson’s seat if, as expected, she resigns to run for governor in 2010.