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Future (Present?) Imperfect

I haven’t read yet the Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World that was issued by the National Intelligence Council. But if this is an exercise in futurology, it had to be prepared in 2003, before the U.S. had experienced several geopolitical (Iraq; Afghanistan; Iran; North Korea) and geoeconomic (the current financial crisis) setbacks, because many of […]

I haven’t read yet the Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World that was issued by the National Intelligence Council. But if this is an exercise in futurology, it had to be prepared in 2003, before the U.S. had experienced several geopolitical (Iraq; Afghanistan; Iran; North Korea) and geoeconomic (the current financial crisis) setbacks, because many of the “predictions” are already here with us, like, you know, now. For example:

Although the United States is likely to remain [remains?] the single most powerful actor, the United States’ relative strength — even in the military realm — will decline [has declined?] and U.S. leverage will become [has become?] more constrained.

Or this:

[The] international system — as constructed following the second World War — will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 [2008?] owing to the rise of emerginpowers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors.

In any case, could someone explain to me who are the mystery men and women who will continue expecting and seeing the U.S. playing a global leadership role in the world in 2025.

Despite the recent rise in anti-Americanism, the U.S. probably will continue to be seen as a much-needed regional balancer in the Middle East and Asia.The American military will continue to be expected to play a leading role in the war against global terrorism, though the United States as a whole will be less able to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships.

Sounds to me like they’ll still be with us in 2025. Some things don’t change.

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