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Poll: Not Much To The Francis Effect

A new comprehensive Pew poll shows that while Catholics love Pope Francis, he has had little to no impact where it counts: on the way Catholics think and behave. Excerpt from the NYT report: One year into the era of Pope Francis, a new poll has found that a broad majority of American Catholics say he represents a […]

A new comprehensive Pew poll shows that while Catholics love Pope Francis, he has had little to no impact where it counts: on the way Catholics think and behave. Excerpt from the NYT report:

One year into the era of Pope Francis, a new poll has found that a broad majority of American Catholics say he represents a major change in direction for the church, and a change for the better. But his popularity has not inspired more Americans to attend Mass, go to confession or identify as Catholic — a finding that suggests that so far, the much-vaunted “Francis effect” is influencing attitudes, but not behavior.

Francis is more popular among American Catholics than Pope Benedict XVI was in February of last year, when he suddenly resigned, according to the poll, which is to be released Thursday by the Pew Research Center. But Francis has not reached the sky-high ratings that Pope John Paul II commanded at the height of his papacy in the 1990s, when he was credited with helping to bring down the Communist government in his native Poland.

More data from the poll itself:

Many commentators have speculated about Francis’ effect on Catholics in the U.S. and around the world. The survey finds he is widely admired, but has his leadership sparked increased devotion among the faithful or inspired former Catholics to return to the church?

The evidence on this question is mixed. Pew Research surveys conducted since Francis was elected find no change in the share of U.S. adults who identify as Catholics: 22% of Americans describe themselves as Catholic today, identical to the 22% who did so in the year preceding Francis’ election. Aggregated data from Pew Research surveys also find no change in self-reported rates of Mass attendance among Catholics. In the year since Francis became pope, 40% of U.S. Catholics say they attend Mass at least once a week, unchanged from the months immediately preceding the papal transition.

The new survey also finds no evidence that large numbers of Catholics are volunteering more or going to confession more often than in the past. Roughly one-in-eight U.S. Catholics (13%) say they have been volunteering more in their church or community over the past year, but 23% say they have been doing this less often, and 59% say their level of volunteering has not changed. Just one-in-twenty Catholics (5%) say they have been going to confession (also known as the sacrament of penance and reconciliation) more often over the last 12 months, while 22% say they have been going to confession less often, and 65% say their frequency of confession has not changed very much.

At the same time, one-quarter of Catholics (26%) say they have become more excited about their Catholic faith over the past year, with far fewer (11%) saying they have become less excited about their faith. And fully 40% of Catholics say they have been praying more in the past year, compared with just 8% who say they have been praying less often. One-in-five Catholics (21%) say they have been reading the Bible or other religious materials more often in the last 12 months, compared with 14% who say they have been doing this less often.

Increased excitement and devotion is most pronounced among Catholics who attend Mass regularly. Four-in-ten of those who attend Mass at least once a week say they have become more excited about their faith in the past year, compared with 19% of Catholics who attend Mass less often. Half of weekly Mass-goers say they have been praying more, compared with 36% among Catholics who attend Mass less than once a week. And twice as many regular Mass attenders as less-frequent attenders say they have been reading religious materials more often (30% vs. 16%). Since the share of Catholics who report attending Mass regularly has not changed since Francis’ election, this suggests that if there has been a “Francis effect,” it has been most pronounced among Catholics who already were highly committed to the practice of their faith.

If you read the entire poll, you’ll see that the excitement over Francis has mostly to do not with the sense that he is a charismatic leader who effectively preaches repentance and conversion, but rather with the expectation that he will liberalize the Church. The data seem to indicate that you can have a charismatic pope, and you can have a non-charismatic pope, but most American Catholics are going to believe and to do whatever they want, inasmuch as they think themselves their own pope.

UPDATE: To clarify, I think it’s great that people love Pope Francis. It would be far better if they would follow him.

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