A reader writes to say she’s a conservative who’s as fed up with the GOP as many of us, but today discovered a potential avenue for a Republican comeback. She says she and her husband spent the day with their tax preparer, and had their eyes opened:
The tax preparer had (by her employer’s rules) to show us a form illustrating how much money the IRS will confiscate from us in 2014 and 2015 if we show up without health insurance (which we have, but she has to show the form to everybody). People were wondering about how the collection mechanism for the “fine” would work, and this is how: you lose your tax refund and/or have your tax burden increased if you can’t prove that you have health insurance.
So the IRS is going to be involved in the new government “health care” industry and will be collecting the penalty for not buying health insurance–proving that this baby was always about increasing taxes, and never really about reforming health care.
In addition, the lady doing our taxes told us about how her adult daughter and son-in-law are about to lose their full-time jobs. They’re not being laid off; they’re just going to have their hours cut to <30/week so the company that employs them won’t have to buy them health insurance (it hasn’t been providing employer-contributed health care up to now, and I got the impression we were talking about a small local business). Her daughter could theoretically be put on mom’s health insurance for a year or so until she passes age 26, and with part-time hours for the couple their child qualifies for the “free” state children’s health insurance program, but the dad is out of luck. Oh, and since their payroll taxes increased in January this young educated working couple can’t even dream of buying their own family health insurance plan. So in effect they could be penalized with higher taxes for not buying something that the rules embedded in the health care plan make it impossible for them to buy (by effectively encouraging their employer to cut their hours).
Out running errands after the tax appt., we saw more panhandlers than I’ve ever seen in daylight hours away from the downtown area–on street corners, drifting through parking lots, moving from place to place with their cardboard signs begging for help. And the real hard times haven’t even started yet.
What do you think?



The problem for the GOP is that they cannot articulate a solution any less problematic.
That was the politics to Democrats passing what they knew to be a flawed ACA and setting its implementation date to 2014. Republicans are cornered into either (a) forcing people out of insurance coverage or (b) proposing how to get inefficiencies and bloat out of health care.
The first gets a lot of poorer Americans motivated to vote against them or come up with implausibly convoluted rationales for blaming Democrats that only people who buy into Republican dogma buy into (see the opening post).
The second requires Republicans to turn on a large element of their donor base- health care is the great golden goose, the big remaining economic sector in which immoral/obscene kinds and levels of profiteering are open to entrepreneurs and investors. These people are not interested in reducing inefficiency and bloat at all until they’ve gotten their piece.
Republicans won the 2010 argument whether ACA passage made a faction of the Democratic Party (the conservative Blue Dogs) no longer necessary or of use- as indeed it did. Republicans lost the 2012 argument about the merits of the entrepreneur and wealthy investor class as political ruling class.
In 2014 the shortcomings of the ACA are forcing a debate about who the parasite class is in this game.
This dispute was foreseen in 2009 and 2010. Single Payer is known to amount to the parsimonious solution to the problem socially and economically. The unwillingness of either side to seriously unite around and back Single Payer on the merits told me (and some other people), if we hadn’t realized this before, that there was a dispute about something other than health care itself setting the terms. ‘Small government’ decodes clearly to claims of a parasitic underclass, and inefficiency and bloat claims to those of either incompetence or parasitic overclass.
The right answer is, of course, ‘they’re both parasitic’. But the election will turn on which is preponderantly felt to be the one requiring more regulation and to be put under duress to change now (we’ll get to the other one later). My present impression is that the 2014 election outcome will be equivocal- what majorities result in Congress will be too small to pass major legislation. On the state level I expect significant moderation and simple continuation of trends- Republican margins continuing to thin away in the Sun Belt and West and along the Atlantic coast, Democrats continuing to lose ground in the Rust Belt.