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How Big Was Greg Abbott’s Win?

Texas-sized, for sure. The Lone Star State ain't turnin' blue anytime soon
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Says the Associated Press:

Texas overwhelmingly elected Republican Greg Abbott as the first new governor in 14 years on Tuesday night and elevated tea party leaders to powerful statewide offices in a forceful rejection of the most optimistic and heavily funded challenge from Democrats in decades.

Wendy Davis, whose national political star power outshined her flickering performance as a candidate, was flirting with faring worse than the last Democrat who ran for Texas governor in 2010. The landslide loss was a sobering reality check for Democrats and delighted Republicans, who relished running up the score on a high-profile opponent whose campaign was co-piloted by the architects of President Barack Obama’s re-election.

Josh Treviño’s Facebook analysis of the landslide defeat of the hapless abortion-lobby candidate Davis tonight:

Here’s your rundown of just how big the Greg Abbott victory is in TX-Gov this evening. Whatever side you’re on, it’s a historic, dominating win — nearly a 20-point margin between him and Wendy Davis at this writing with c.60% of precincts in. All the following numbers are subject to change, of course. Nevertheless:

Let’s start with the cities, which together with the border regions constitute the core of the Texas Democratic base:

Abbott is winning all of metro Houston including the core of Harris County.
Abbott is winning all of metro San Antonio including the core of Bexar County.
Abbott is winning metro Dallas-Fort Worth except Dallas County.
Abbott is winning metro Austin except Travis County.

Greg Abbott presently has three of the big five Texas cities. Keep in mind that only one of them, Fort Worth, is generally expected to go Republican in any given election. So, this is a remarkable outcome, especially given the supermajority-minority status of both Harris and Bexar.

On demography, the left-coalition hopes for a decent showing were openly pinned upon women and Hispanics. How’d Abbott do with them?

Abbott wins Hispanic men by a single point — 50-49.
Abbott gets up to 44% of all Hispanics.
Abbott wins women 54-45.

The age breakdown is interesting too. Here’s how Abbott does:

Loses 18-29 by 1 point.
Loses 30-44 by 3 points.
Wins 45-64 by 33 points.
Wins 65+ by 42 points.

So basically we see the traditional Texas Republican supermajority with Anglos and men married to a strong Hispanic showing, a win with women, a blowout in over-45s, and remarkable inroads into the urban areas. That’s what this effort looks like, and — need it be said — this is what a comprehensive defeat of the Obama for America machine looks like. Because that is exactly what this is.

It has been 20 years since Democrats won a statewide race in Texas. Twenty years. With Tea Party radio talker Dan Patrick winning the lieutenant governor’s slot tonight, and Tea Partier Ken Paxton replacing Abbott at the state’s Attorney General, Texas may have even gotten even more conservative tonight, if you can imagine such a thing.

Goodbye, Battleground Texas!

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