A couple of recent rulings — the most recent one coming yesterday — all but guarantee the US Supreme Court will take up the constitutionality of same-sex marriage in its fall term. Excerpt:

What will happen to either case should it arrive at the Supreme Court also remains a matter of debate, as does whether the court will take either or both when the requests arrive by October. The court is widely thought to be divided 4-4 on same-sex rights, with Justice Anthony M. Kennedy the key deciding vote.

“Everybody has their eyes on Kennedy,” noted Linda C. McClain, a professor of law at Boston University.

Both cases have been decided on narrow grounds that speak to past Kennedy decisions. The justices would therefore not have to rule on whether same-sex marriage is a right guaranteed by the Constitution, only whether lesbian and gay couples had faced unconstitutional discrimination.

Supporters of same-sex marriage are hoping that, on the contrary, the Supreme Court might be persuaded to view this as an opportunity like the one it took in 1967 in the landmark Loving v. Virginia ruling when it declared that laws banning interracial marriage were unconstitutional. Others view that as highly unlikely, given the court’s makeup.

There’s a part of me that wishes SCOTUS would just take up the damn issue and clarify it for the country. Yet if I had to bet money on the vote, I’d say Kennedy would go with the liberal justices, and conservatives’ goose would be cooked. I suppose given Kennedy’s cautious centrism, there is a chance that he would only sign on to a majority ruling that carved out some kind of religious liberty protection, but I don’t know what might be possible, logically and legally. The alternative, I suppose, is for conservatives to hope that Romney wins the presidency, and the next opening on the Supreme Court comes with the retirement or death of a liberal justice, or Justice Kennedy. That seems pretty far-fetched.