By William Lind | March 30, 2011
As the American foreign-policy establishment drools about “democracy,” the U.S. position in the Middle East is collapsing. Its three legs are Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Two of those are disintegrating. One-legged stools make unstable seats.
The likelihood of any of the countries in the region becoming thriving, secular democracies is about equal to the probability we will balance the federal budget with bars of gold brought by flying monkeys. In the Middle East as in most of the world, the two options are tyranny and anarchy. When tyranny fails, anarchy moves in.
Establishment analysis perceives the possibility of disaster but does not grasp its potential dimensions. It sees the worst possible outcome as the rise of Islamic governments hostile to Israel, friendly to Iran, unwilling to cooperate with the United States in the “war on terror,” and dismissive of such “universals” as feminist definitions of women’s rights.
However, if we look at unfolding events through the lens provided by Fourth Generation war theory, a darker picture emerges. Fourth Generation theory says that what is at stake is the state itself.
Behind the events in the streets, the fundamental contest will be a war for legitimacy between non-state actors and the aspiring governments of states. As states all over the world become private preserves of a “new class” who use politics only to serve themselves, people are transferring their primary loyalty away from governments to a wide variety of other entities: religions and sects, races and ethnic groups, gangs, ideologies, and so on. For these new primary loyalties they are often eager to fight; this is especially true where there are large surpluses of young men with nothing else to do. Think of it as supply-side war.
From this perspective, the worst possible outcome of revolutionary events in the Middle East is the disintegration of states and their replacement either by statelessness—as we see in Somalia—or by fictional states, as in Iraq and Afghanistan. Within the territories that were formerly real states, power devolves to many non-state entities. Internally, war becomes a permanent condition, while externally there is no one with whom other states can deal. In the case of oil-producing areas, the flow becomes erratic at best.
What is the likelihood of such Fourth Generation outcomes? It differs place to place. Egypt has had a strong central government for some 5,000 years and will probably retain one. In Libya and Yemen, the state is fragile. Pakistan was a real state but is one no longer. Saudi Arabia is a riddle wrapped in an enigma. Iraq’s fictional state could vanish with the rub of a lamp.
The states most likely to survive are those such as Syria and Iran where the government is openly anti-American. Here we see the price, most of it yet to be paid, of the folly of the Bush years. Where the quest is for legitimacy, nothing is more corrosive than being seen as the servant of a foreign power, especially one that is widely hated. Bush’s invasion of Iraq and the endless war in Afghanistan made America into the “Great Satan” in the eyes of Muslims everywhere. At the same time, successive American administrations have openly given orders to our “allies” in the region and forced their compliance. We not only let the strings show, we painted them red, white, and blue. Now, in terms of legitimacy, America has the reverse Midas touch.
The foreign-policy establishment can grasp none of this because to do so it would have to see itself as others see it. Washington is a hall of mirrors.
What should our policy toward new entities in the Middle East be? If we understand we have the reverse Midas touch, we will also understand we should assume the lowest of profiles. First, remove the irritants. End the war in Afghanistan, close the American bases, shrink the embassies, and stop legitimizing Likud’s expansionism. Then work to have what happens in the Middle East stay in the Middle East. Lower the profile of our relationship with Israel. Be careful whom we admit within our own borders, including as refugees. (There may be millions.) Reduce our dependence on imported oil by raising the gas tax and using the revenue to bring back passenger trains.
In short, come home and close the gate. Leave our good Muslim friends to wage jihad on one another.
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Very sound advice for the U.S. foreign policy establishment. I doubt whether the special interests and lobbies who pull the strings behind the curtain would support such a sensible change in direction. Only a financial collapse could accomplish this.
Mr. Lind, I’ve been a rail nut all of my life. But bringing back passenger trains in a big way is unrealistic. Passenger trains interfere with freight operations and curves are banked for freight train speeds. In order to have a viable high speed rail network, we would need to construct new dedicated lines as they have done in France for their TGV service. This would be super costly and there would be endless lawsuits from citizens’ objecting to taking their property for a right of way or concerned about noise. And besides, there are no American manufacturers of such equipment.
What we do need is a comprehensive energy policy and a blueprint for the future. I doubt whether we can long afford to import 12 million barrels of petroleum products every day, mostly from unstable regimes. But it is arguable whether our congress can come to any sort of consensus. The ultra-liberals democrats and über free market republicans are simply too far apart. Example: There is no agreement on what to do with spent nuclear fuel rods so they are stored right at the power plants. This is not only dangerous but stupid.
FTA: “As states all over the world become private preserves of a “new class” who use politics only to serve themselves, people are transferring their primary loyalty away from governments to a wide variety of other entities: religions and sects, races and ethnic groups, gangs, ideologies, and so on.”
As an aside, this will be happening more and more in this country, also. The smartest people already recognize that their “leaders,” (both Bush and Obama come immediately to mind), no longer give their allegiance to the United States or its people but to corporate entities and supra-national forces like the UN. Thus, they recognize that their own allegiance must no longer be given primarily to something as a abstract and ephemeral as the government of the United States but something offering more tangible benefits, be they economic or social. Churches, social groups and ethnic societies come readily to mind.
[...] in The American Conservative, William Lind bemoans the tendency revealed by current upheavals in the Middle East. “[T]he worst possible [...]
Mizz Marple makes a good point about this country. I’m rooting for anarchy here – as in a stateless society, self-rule, individuals acting detached from centralized government.
If left alone and without western meddling to install strong central governments in places like Afghanistan and Somalia, those people might just get along fine without westerners “helping” them with UN or NATO, the IMF, the World Bank, and the CIA masquerading as NGOs.
Brought by flying monkeys! Pahaha!
ausgezeichnet. Where’s the like button?
Tom Blanton: If left alone and without western meddling to install strong central governments in places like Afghanistan and Somalia, those people might just get along fine without westerners “helping” them with UN or NATO, the IMF, the World Bank, and the CIA masquerading as NGOs>>>
Judging by this statement you have read neither the koran or hadith. All of you on this blog should read both of them. Until you do that, you won’t know what Islam is, and Mohammed’s goal for Islam.
Islam was left alone for 1400 years; guess what happened? They murdered, pillaged, raped, and took over the world from Spain to India. Mohammed started it all with 75 terrorist raids, mostly against Jews.
Regarding involvement, if we hadn’t put in the Shaw in Iran, they would definitely have nukes by now, and Israel would already have been destroyed. Muslims were well on their way in Terrorism by the 1970′s. They were committing terrorist raids under Arafat’s uncle supporting Hitler in WWII.
oft: “Islam was left alone for 1400 years; guess what happened? They murdered, pillaged, raped, and took over the world from Spain to India. Mohammed started it all with 75 terrorist raids, mostly against Jews.”
As so many others have pointed out here and elsewhere, until becoming Israel’s enabler, the United States, (whose interests alone concern me), had lived peaceably with the Islamic states.
Please, take your “Clash of civilizations” tripe elsewhere. Following the neocons’ “wisdom” has only left this nation economically weakened, its middle class rapidly fading and her respect and prestige in the world shattered.
With “friends” like the ba___rd neocons, we never needed enemies.
Apparently the person known as “oft” doesn’t know much about Christian history and the violence associated with it. But, there’s no question that killers and despots love to hide behind the veil of religion.
I guess “oft” doesn’t remember when Dick Cheney was trying to sell a nuclear power program to Iran back when the “Shaw” that “oft” speaks of was the Grand Wazoo of Persia. That was before Cheney questioned why Iran would need nuclear power when it has all that oil.
There is also the possibility that Iran’s Islamic Revolution what not have happened but for the installation of the “Shaw”.
I find Mr. Lind’s assesment to be interesting but I disagree. I think you will see the disintigration of several states as Mr. Lind is stating (especially states that were carved up by Western powers after the fall of the Ottoman Empire). Then I believe you will see the return of the Sunni Caliphate in one form or another. It won’t be all encompassing but I could definitely see one emerging in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. That will be followed with a long bloody sectarian war between Sunni and Shia with the Caliphate on one side and Iran and it’s Shia allies on the other. Sectarian violence in the Muslim world is all ready occuring in Iraq and in Yemen and we’re seeing a Shia uprising against a Sunni Monarchy in Bahrain with the house of Saud and other Arabian Sunni monarchies sending troops to Bahrain to keep the Shia rebellion from spreading to the oil rich eastern Saudi Arabia.
Afghanistan never had a strong central state and tribalism has always impeded any attempts to establish such a state. Quite possibly the Islamist Taliban was the closest anyones ever come to a strong central state in Afghanistan even though the overwhelmingly Pushtun Taliban were in a perpetual state of war with the Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras who made up the Northern Alliance.
As for Libya. Ghaddafi was able to establish a strong, centralized state.
Now I do agree with Mr. Lind on the solution to the problem (except I would have added an significant increase in domestic oil drilling) we need to get out of the Middle East. The Muslims are not our natural enemies nor should we be intervening in their civil wars on one side or the other. They may pose a threat to Serbia and Russia and Armenia, but Serbia, Russia and Armenia can take care of themselves especially if the West keeps their noses out of it.
We need to end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (and now Pakistan, Yemen and Libya), cut aid across the board and adopt a policy of REAL NEUTRALITY in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. We need to close the bases abroad. Increase domestic oil drilling and fuel production and tell oil rich Arab sheiks “spasiba e dasvedanya” (thank you and goodbye). They can sell to the Chinese, nationalize their oil wells, do whatever the hell they want. It’s none of our business and they would be better off for it and so would we.
“Reduce our dependence on imported oil by raising the gas tax and using the revenue to bring back passenger trains.”
Sadly ,”Flying monkeys bringing gold bars” more likely than that scenario .
Don’t see Assad in Syria surviving any more than Qadaffi. US dependency on oil will not permit changes in Saudi Arabia other than cosmetic.Same for other Gulf States. Israel and Iran seem to me to be permanent players and while regimes can change there I don’t see either of them failing as States.Too powerful and would take the whole region and beyond with them if that were to happen. We’ll see what develops. I think that Obama is being true to his campaign foreign policy if one paid attention.
[...] 2011 by Alan Furth En un receinte artículo escrito en The American Conservative, William Lind se lamenta de la tendencia que parecen seguir los recientes levantamientos en Oriente Medio. “El peor [...]
Tom,
When in history has Protestants committed genocide?
I’m talking the koran and Islam, and you bring up Dick Cheney? Unbelievable. That is most likely what the politicians do; ignore it.
The Muslims are not our natural enemies nor should we be intervening in their civil wars on one side or the other. They may pose a threat to Serbia and Russia and Armenia, but Serbia, Russia and Armenia can take care of themselves especially if the West keeps their noses out of it.>>>
Mohammed said the world is the natural enemy of Islam. Terrorists are doing only what he commanded. If we don’t intervene, once Iran gets nukes, say goodnight. Israel will be attacked first, then us.
Politicians and philosophers have for too long judged Islam without consulting Mohammed’s words, which is why the middle east problem persists.
Given the fact Mohammed admitted being Demon possessed at least twice in the koran, the religion of Islam is Demonic to the core, which is the reason why they want to destroy Israel. Israel was and will be again God’s people. Satan hates Israel, as did Mohammed. Do you think once they have the land, they will stop and be nice?
Give me a break! The politicians know nothing, and are fools! Islam should be declared illegal, and had they investigated the koran and hadith, the Founding Fathers would never have allowed Islam protection in America. They were too busy forming a Christian Nation.
Oft, in the Koran Mohammed calls Christians and Jews the “People of the Book” and calls for them to pay a tax when they live in Muslim controlled lands but does not call for their slaughter. For centuries Christians and Jews in Muslim lands were subjagated and offered incentives to apostate to Islam but they were not slaughtered unless they rose up against Muslim rule. If Mohammed had advocated conversion by the sword there would be no Christians left in the Middle East and significant segments of the Balkans and Caucusus. Neither would there have been any Jews in Palestine before the creatin of the Jewish state.
The Muslim state most hostile to Non Muslims is our friends in Saudi Arabia where Wahhabi Islam is the state religion and non Muslim religions are outlawed. filipino migrant workers are thrown into jail for attending mass in a migrant worker tnement house in Saudi Arabia yet Bush liked to hold hands with their crown prince.
As for Protestants and genocide. Oliver Cromwell comes to mind and the slaughter of Roman Catholics in England, Scotland and Ireland.
Lind: As states all over the world become private preserves of a “new class” who use politics only to serve themselves.
How true – look at our country. The housing bobble let to millions of people losing their homes – and what happens, the financial institutions that did it are being made whole by the taxpayers – and no one is going to jail. How can this happen?
Look at our foreign policy – we have been killing Muslims every day now for almost ten years and the powers that be have just attacked another Muslim country. How does this serve us?
Look at our intellectual institutions, media and universities – in both instances they are all but silent on these vital matters.
That America is being run for “We The People” is a cruel joke. Western democracy has been co-opted – end of story.
Where are the good men who will say so?
Selfdestructing conduct of falling empires is well known
yet Chinese mast have looked and not believed when W borrowed billions to fight thirld world lunatics to be replaced by their alikes
It is often said that a civilization or a nation that cannot even recognize its enemies let alone fight them does not deserve to survive
Tyranny or anarchy that is indeed the choice but let the Chinese for one instance help Arabs to choose one
Oft, in the Koran Mohammed calls Christians and Jews the “People of the Book” and calls for them to pay a tax when they live in Muslim controlled lands but does not call for their slaughter. For centuries Christians and Jews in Muslim lands were subjagated and offered incentives to apostate to Islam but they were not slaughtered unless they rose up against Muslim rule. If Mohammed had advocated conversion by the sword there would be no Christians left in the Middle East and significant segments of the Balkans and Caucusus. Neither would there have been any Jews in Palestine before the creatin of the Jewish state>>
You believe the koran doesn’t call for anyones slaughter because you are cherry picking the koran. Like I said earlier on this blog, a peaceful muslim is not a true muslim, but Mohammed calls them hypocrites. It is a fact of history, Islam was spread by the sword; tyou haven’t read the Hadith. Thank God Charles Martel stopped the Muslims before they could kill everyone.
You are wrongly assuming Muslims killed every single Jew. Thank God some survived. They were there for hundreds of years.
Mohammed hated peaceful muslims, if you believe his words:
Qur’an 4:88 “What is the matter with you that you are divided about the Hypocrites? Allah has cast them back (causing their disbelief). Would you guide those whom Allah has thrown out of the Way? For those whom Allah has thrown aside and led astray, never shall they find the Way.”
Qur’an 4:89 “They wish that you would reject Faith, as they have, and thus be on the same footing: Do not be friends with them until they leave their homes in Allah’s Cause. But [and this is a hell of a but...] if they turn back from Islam, becoming renegades, seize them and kill them wherever you find them.”
Qur’an 48:11 “The desert Arabs who lagged behind [in fighting] will say to you (Muhammad): ‘We were engaged in (looking after) our flocks and our families.’ We have prepared for them a Blazing Fire!”
Qur’an 48:17 “There is no blame for the blind, nor is it a sin for the lame, nor on one ill if he joins not in the fighting. But he who retreats, (Allah) will punish him with a painful doom.”
Qur’an 4:77 “Have you not seen those to whom it was said: Withhold your hands from fighting, perform the prayer and pay the zakat. But when orders for fighting were issued, a party of them feared men as they ought to have feared Allah. They say: ‘Our Lord, why have You ordained fighting for us, why have You made war compulsory?’”
Qur’an 4:78 “Wherever you are, death will find you, even if you are in towers built up strong and high! If some good befalls, they say, ‘This is from Allah;’ but if evil, they say, ‘This is from you (Muhammad).’ Say: ‘All things are from Allah.’ So what is wrong with these people, that they fail to understand these simple words?”
Murder (Hadith)
Tabari IX:69 “Killing disbelievers is a small matter to us.”
Tabari VIII:141 “The battle cry of the Companions of the Messenger of Allah that night was: ‘Kill! Kill! Kill!’”
Bukhari:V5B59N512 “The Prophet had their men killed, their woman and children taken captive.”
Ishaq:489 “Do the bastards think that we are not their equal in fighting? We are men who think that there is no shame in killing.”
Qur’an 2:191 “And kill them wherever you find and catch them. Drive them out from where they have turned you out; for Al-Fitnah (polytheism, disbelief, oppression) is worse than slaughter.”
Qur’an 33:60 “Truly, if the Hypocrites stir up sedition, if the agitators in the City do not desist, We shall urge you to go against them and set you over them. Then they will not be able to stay as your neighbors for any length of time. They shall have a curse on them. Whenever they are found, they shall be seized and slain without mercy – a fierce slaughter – murdered, a horrible murdering.”
Oft none of the passages you’ve offered specifically state to kill Christians and Jews and if you know your history then you know that Muhhamed and his followers were at war with pagan tribes on the Arab Peninsula. However there are specific passages concerning Christians and Jews living in Muslim lands and it calls for protecting those communities and their places of worship as long as they pay a tax. I am no Koranic scholar but as an Orthodox Christian married to a Persian woman from Central Asia I know a little about Muslims and their faith.
By the way the Sunni Salafist/Wahhabists of the Saudi Arabian type disregard the passages in the Koran concerning Christians and Jews and these are the same people largely responsible for funding Islamist terrorism and insurrections around the world. These people kill many of their fellow Muslims (and especially Shia Muslims) because they don’t suscribe to their brand of Islam.
[...] a strong traditional state is preferable to the ravages of ideological factions — this is what William Lind was getting at when he wrote a while back that we have a great interest in seeing the state survive in the Middle [...]
Jane Marple, re: “As so many others have pointed out here and elsewhere, until becoming Israel’s enabler, the United States, (whose interests alone concern me), had lived peaceably with the Islamic states.” That’s errant nonsense, Jane… read some history. Muslim The Barbary Pirates attacked American shipping and took hostages as far back as the presidency of Thomas Jefferson. Muslims slaughtered some fifty million non-Muslims in what is now the Hindu Kush in the 1500s. Muslim attacks on American started when they did not because Dar al-Islam (the house of Islam) wished to live in peace with Dar al-Harb (the rest of the world), aka “The House of War,” prior to them – but because they had the tools once intercontinental travel and mass communications were widespread.
Re: “Please, take your “Clash of civilizations” tripe elsewhere.” For your information, the late Samuel L, Huntington was widely regarded as one of the most-insightful political scientists and historians of the last fifty years. I sincerely doubt you have done anything remotely approaching the quality of his work – so perhaps you’d consider showing some respect for your betters.
Re: “Following the neocons’ “wisdom” has only left this nation economically weakened, its middle class rapidly fading and her respect and prestige in the world shattered.”
You attempt to link Huntington to neo-conservatism; that’s a straw man argument, because Huntington was certainly no neo-con.
Jane, if you are truly open-minded enough to go where the evidence leads you, sit down with the Koran and the Hadiths, and compare them point by point with the foundational documents of western civilization, including our own. They cannot be reconciled. Islam has been at war with the infidels (hint, that’s us) since its founding over 1400 years ago. Keep your head firmly lodged in the sand (or wherever else you care to keep it), but that won’t change the facts. Lind’s strategy of containment and isolation of the islamic world is a good one, because it treats Islam like the pathogen it is.