What Ever Happened to Muqtada al-Sadr?
Ahead of Obama’s Iraq speech, Kelley Vlahos looks at what one of the country’s leading clerics has been up to while out of the media glare:
Muqtada al Sadr, once dismissed by Washington neoconservatives as a desperate, washed-up five-cent firebrand, is now an Iranian-supported kingmaker who will not only help determine the next government and prime minister, but has threatened to activate the armed wing of his low-lying Mahdi Army, the Promised Day Brigade, if the American “occupier” doesn’t pack up and leave entirely.
The “Promised Day Brigade” will “prepare quietly to launch qualitative attacks against the occupiers (U.S. forces) if they stay beyond 2011,” said Sadr spokesman Salah al-Obeidi, to the Associated Press, in May. “It will have a big role to play to drive them out of Iraq.”
Read on to find out just how al-Sadr might complicate the nice, neat narrative Barack Obama tries to weave tonight.
Al Sadr is moving to Lebanon . (He is half Lebanese).
He wishes to get out from under Iranian influence . He has consistently been an Iraqi Nationalist ,critical of Iranian moves in Iraq. He is supported by Iran because he is Shite. Ayatollah Sistani protected him when the Iraqi government by order of the Americans ordered his arrest. Iran wanted Al Sadr to support Maliki but he refuses and rightly so given Maliki’s past actions regarding the Al Sadr Trend. Hence the tension with Iran. Get your disinformation straight.
John — I’m not really understanding your “disinformation” charge. If you read the piece, it clearly says:
“Muqtada al Sadr has only enhanced this influence and legitimacy among Sadrist Shia followers during the U.S war, for rebelling against and not consorting with “the occupier,” nor bending to the wills of Maliki or even Iran. Just last week, Sadr told his hosts in Iran that he will leave them and set up shop in Lebanon if they continue to exert pressure on him to join Maliki in a coalition government.”
As far as I know, that is publicly updated information, and varies little with what you offer above.
John Williams is correct in his comments, but given the pathetic state of reporting about Sadr in U.S. press, this article is a pleasant surprise in that it actually has some merit. Sadr is an Iraqi nationalist. He is not a “puppet” of Iran and anyone who tries to paint him with that brush is just showing abject ignorance and is not to be taken seriously. But Ms. Vlahos did make the correct statement regarding Sadr’s pledge to leave Iran if they tried to pressure him about supporting Maliki.
The entire SOFA agreement was heavily influenced by Muqtada al-Sadr. Because of his unwavering stance of total U.S. withdrawal and sooner rather than later, Sistani himself was forced to adopt a more aggressive approach to the SOFA agreement. Given the growing popularity of Sadr and the success of Sadr’s social programs for the poor, Sistani could not afford to look “soft” on the American occupation.
The entire dialog on SOFA changed after a meeting between Sistani and Maliki. Maliki went into the meeting with American bases and a withdrawal without a specific timetable still on the table. After the meeting, Maliki insisted on a total U.S. withdrawal and a specific timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops and later complete withdrawal.
A shame that probably less than 1 American in 1,000 cares to pay attention to the reality as it unfolded in Iraq. Has been a fascinating drama to watch unfold. I, too, first labeled Sadr as a political “lightweight”, but learned far earlier than most he was nothing of the sort. He has tactically played his hand quite brilliantly to attain the power he currently has, but nothing is for certain in current Iraqi politics.
This will continue to be fascinating to watch play out. The only certainty is that the incompetent neo-cons who bum-rushed an ignorant American public into invading Iraq have failed miserably in their original goals (see PNAC). The have succeeded in creating a ton of wealth for military suppliers and oil companies, though. Maybe that was their real goal, because they were incredibly ignorant in everything else.
BTW, as daunting a problem as the continued rise of al-Sadr could be for American interests in Iraq, the Iraqi government is facing a much more difficult situation regarding who will rule Kirkuk.
That little baby is a potential powderkeg waiting to explode in a whole bunch of nasty pieces.
Iraq is years away from any type of stability.
This article should put to rest any notion that the Surge, announced in January, 2007 and implemented beginning in February of that year, was an unconditional success. The neo-con media (and its ravenous audience) continue to demand mea culpas from the then Dem. senator from Illinois who, at that time, questioned the practical effect of the Surge on the infrastructure of Iraqi political reality. This article provides support for that query. It was a valid question then and remains so today.
Most troubling is that, despite being a critic of the Surge in 2007, the President has now, as commander-in-chief, adopted its architect as the executive director of the theater-of-the-absurd in Afghanistan in a redux of the tactic of doubling down.
Our increased military presence will do nothing to convince the insurgents and tribal leaders in the rural regions of the efficacy of the Karzai government. It will be regarded as a mere moment in time in a land that views history on the canvas of centuries. At what cost will we ultimately end our attempts at nation-buiding?
Your article is pretty good. One thing I might add is that when the US had a siege on the Temple in Najaf ,when Sistani was in England for heart surgery, and Al Sadr and his Mahdi boys were “protecting the Temple” in his absence ,the United States did the stupidest thing we could have done. We sent a Smart Bomb in (Can you say Summary Execution?) and only wounded Al Sadr slightly. At least that was what the Spin was. That plays directly into Shia Mythology. We gave him an ascendency! Don’t be a bit surprised if he becomes Iraq’s Ayattollah. and he will be as vehemently anti American as Iran’s Khamenei.
Don’t be suprised if he claims or is elevated to the status of the 12th IMAM…..controlling everything.
I am the author of “Voodoo in Sadr City” and one of my readers just forwarded this article to me. I’m not pandering for book sales but if the author of this article wants to contact me . . . feel free. I wrote the book while working in Sadr City back in 2005 – 2006.
According to my reader – it appears they are recommending that we talk so I can explain how I warned the everyone in 2005.
Anyone can contact me but I am waiting for the author: boonecutler@gmail.com
Not that we are afraid of this characters threats but our boys must not stay beyond 2011. Get home safe, get home soon, if not sooner.