Good News for Sarah Palin? Not Really
Liberal blogger Nate Silver believes it’s good news for the former Alaska governor that not a single one of 109 GOP “party leaders, political professionals and pundits” surveyed by National Journal thinks she’ll be the party’s 2012 nominee. He thinks this will reinforce what he calls the “victimization complex of Palin and her supporters” and predicts “there’s going to come a time, probably in July 2011 or so, where the knives are really drawn on Palin and Republican pundits, strategists and candidates start saying in public some of the things they’ve been thinking in private.”
Talk of victimization complexes aside, Silver’s assumption is that outsiderdom is popular among the conservative GOP primary electorate. Unfortunately for Palin, he’s wrong about that. When was the last time the Republican Party nominated anyone who wasn’t the consensus candidate of those “party leaders, political professionals and pundits”? Recall who the GOP has fielded in the past 20 years — George H.W. Bush, Robert Dole, George W. Bush, and John McCain. These were all insider candidates who got rewarded for “waiting their turn.” Even Reagan, a better candidate than Ford in ’76, was passed over that year only to be accepted in ’80, by which time the party establishment was reconciled to him, reluctantly or not. The establishment pick for 2012 is, as the National Journal survey confirms once again, Mitt Romney, who bowed out of the 2008 primaries at just the right time to stop the nomination process from getting too tumultuous. (It’s quite possible that the GOP could have had a hung convention if Romney had stayed in.)
The thing that surprises populist or insurgent GOP candidates time and again is just how middle-of-the-road Republican presidential primary voters really are. But think about it: the people who are most likely to vote in any primary are a.) older people, b.) party loyalists, and above all c.) people who have voted in primaries before. In other words, the people who will be voting in 2012 GOP presidential primaries will be mostly the same people who nominated McCain in 2008, Bush in 2000, and Dole in 1996. They are, simply put, politically conformist. Neither conservatives nor populists nor outsiders of any description (not even the Christian Right, as witness Pat Robertson in ’88) has had any grip on the GOP nominating process since 1976, when Reagan fell short of the nomination but really did discombobulate the establishment. And ’76 was the first seriously contested Republican race under the modern primary system. Since then, the GOP establishment has learned how to quash any resistance. The primaries only give the appearance of competition — in practice, they work just as well as the old smoke-filled room when it comes to nominating the pick of the “party leaders, professionals and pundits.”
There is a way to beat the establishment at its own game, but it requires a smarter and more ruthless strategy than I expect to see from Sarah Palin, who, if anything, might have her best shot by becoming runner-up in 2012 and then being the insider pick for 2016. Exactly what it would take to win against the grain of insider opinion is a topic I’ll pick up another day. (For more on Palin, see Jeff Taylor’s review of her book from the latest TAC.)
I’ve never voted in a primary before, but if Palin does run in 2012, I’ll be sure to vote for her. I know lots of people who will do likewise. Maybe the beltway insiders should get out where real people are once in awhile. They, and you, will be in for a big surprise in 2012.
She’s a quitter. She’s a liar. I expect quite soon what the GOP really feels about her will be known.
The people in Alaska are certainly teed off at her for quitting…
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100108/OPINION04/1080336/-1/NEWS04/Advice-from-Alaska-Forget-Sarah-Palin
I believe the majority of Americans are tired of the “crude and rude” political party mentally. Sarah Palin will do just fine.
Sarah Palin is the superstar of American conservatism. She can call her shots, write her ticket, name her price. She is the most powerful woman in the USA.
i’m waiting to see palin clean out the trash in washington just like she did in alaska. both parties included. this “do as i say do, not as i do” has come out of the shadows now and joined in with the democrats who think they can do whatever they want without fear of anything happening to them.
dennisintn
smart is a good way to describe palin’s political style. ruthless is much more applicable to the alinsky/chicago style of the current white house. payoffs to bloggers and media people for blast and trash articles against anyone like palin that dares to oppose their activities. these same “journalists” better known as whore journalists would just as cheerfully accept money to write about knowing people who has seen the pope sacrificing babies to the devil in a back room at the vatican.
dennisintn
Sarah Palin forfeited her political future when she quit the job she was elected to do in the political present. She’s best off on the sidelines or on the fringe as a quasicelebrity. She cashed in on her newfound national fame thanks to McCain quicker than pretty much any politician in American history. I don’t have anything against her, but these are the facts. She just doesn’t have national potential and I hope she doesn’t have to learn that the hard way and become dejected when she sees the results should she try.
Really don’t think Palin’s smart enough to turn this country around!
My prediction is that a new conservative party will form and Palin will be their candidate. Like her book says, “She’s Going Rogue.” She doesn’t care what the GOP does and neither do her supporters. I doubt she’ll win the general election, Obama will, but Palin will be leading a new political party and could shakeup party politics in a big way. If she tries to play within the confine of the two-party system, she won’t win the nomination, but I can’t imagine she would play that game.
Daniel, we’ve come a long ways since you claimed we needed to invent a new classification of near-human, I think you called it “booby-sapiens” or some such, to describe Palin.
And still true to form, the “real people” jump on and comment first, then one or more stealth-libs will discover the post, and come in to stick a knife in the back or their enemy (Palin).
And you still don’t know what to do with an honest person. She got used and abused on the national stage, then dumped back in Alaska, and the attack-dogs had run up half a million in debt for her and her husband and children.
One of the things the slime-bags sued her over, was as governor, she was photographed in public with a sweatshirt with writing that the suit claimed could be construed as an endorsement by a public official. (Imagine somebody sueing Michelle or Barack over that sort of thing – imagine the public backlash.)
So she did the honorable thing, and “possibly sacrificed” a political career for the good of the state, and her husband and children. She said she’d leave future political prospects “in the hands of God”.
You just don’t get it, do you? It would never occur to the average lying-lefty that what she said just might be the truth.
For those of us who believe in God, we choose to interpret this reality as one in which second chances abound. For me personally, Palin removed herself from my personal attention when she quit the Governorship.
But just like I wouldn’t have considered a simpering fool like McCain (and NEVER will) until Palin came along, I am being forced to take a second look at Palin.
I mean, just what is it that she represents that has the big guns from the left so petrified? Enemy of my enemy, deserves a second look.
As late as 06, I would have agreed with this column’s assertion that the GOP was well-organized and had a principled and predicable succession process. However, four factors lead to question whether the GOP is capable of orderly succession in 2012. The unwillingness of the GOP Congressional Caucus to work with either of the past two Presidents on the financial crisis or recession, the local-issue dominated gubernatorial campaigns in Virginia and New Jersey in 09, the failures of the GOP national committees to raise money without massive expenses, and the loss of all special federal elections in the past three years lead to the conclusion the GOP leadership is out of touch with its own rank and file.
Neither does the historical loyalty of the GOP rank and file appear to be evident in the current GOP. For these reasons, I would think the opinions of the 109 GOP leaders is not predictive of the whether or not Palin will capture the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.
The Republican ticket in 2012 will be MITT ROMNEY and his pal and Tea Party darling, JIM DeMINT. The Republican and Tea Party will unite behind this ticket.
ROMNEY / DeMINT
a United Front!
We need to get rid of all those old Republicans. They don’t stand for anything, maybe Mike Huckabee. Sarah Palin stands for America, the America I knew growing up.
We are in deep trouble here in America and Obama is taking us down fast.. We need someone strong and resolute like Sarah Palin,. to bring America back as a financially strong country. A country where small businesses can grow and prosper.
Sarah Palin is a political prostitute and hypocrite of the highest order. She sees no problem collecting $200k for speaking at a fundraiser for a government-run hospital in Canada in one hand and with the other shake her fist in contrived outrage at government-run healthcare. This two-faced bimbo also has no problem calling President Obama a socialist “wealth-spreader”, all the while bragging about the number of annual checks she doled out as governor of Alaska to nearly every resident, representing their share of the revenues from the state’s oil riches. She boosted those checks by raising taxes on oil. Says the bimbo:
“And Alaska we’re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it’s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs.”
What a flaming hypocrite
Sarah Palin isn´t going to be presdient. Sarah Palin doesn´t WANT TO BE PRESIDENT. That´s work…she´d have to debate, she´d have to hold press conferences and answer pesky questions…she doesn´t DO that. She pontificates to her audience and charges them money in some form or another. Buy my book, pay my speaking fee, want a photo with me? Ok, 35 bucks for that!
She blows off important, civic minded, civil servant type conventions and venues for the HIGH PAYING GIGS. CPAC? they dont pay…I´ll take the $100,000.00 from the TEABAGGERS and get high praise doing it. I´ll drop alot of catch phrases and buzz words and get APPLAUSE…AND MONEY!
Sarah is a tap dancing vaudeville act that ONLY does the shimmy to the tune of KA-CHING $$$
Don´t kid yourself with all this ridiculous analysis. You´re being HAD, by a pretty little huckster. It´s the oldest trick in the book.
Anyone who would consider Sarah Palin a conservative ought to read Ken Minogue’s article about British philosopher Michael Oakeshott that appeared in TAC a few months ago. I’m not sure that I see anyone on he side of the horizon of any political party that could be accurately described as having a “disposition to preserve.”
dennisintn~ only a modern democrat could perform such a marvelous victim act at their own victory speech. I suspect it’s a smokescreen to cover up compliance in the the total-war offensive strategy to destroy her career. Granted,she did help you guys out in a number of ways, but hey, you don’t even acknowledge help when it’s freely given.
I think Granholm has more influence in this day an age than Palin… save as a symbol, or a caricature, take your pick.
As to whether Palin is a “real conservative”… I’ll leave that up to history. But honestly, I don’t think she’ll make enough of a long term splash to be recorded for real. Never confuse news coverage for relevance.
There were quite a number of vocal conservatives who were saying the same (ie. he’s not a real Conservative, etc) about Reagan… and these days he looks like the Second Coming. I’d settle for someone who’s willing to put their money where their mouth is and has what it takes to move us in the right direction. This means, away from big government, and towards individual liberties… not all “rights” and no responsibility.
I’m afraid she is the closest the current Republican Party will get to what we need that had a shot…. but like Thompson, lacked the will and character sufficient to go through with it. This ship sailed when she dropped out of the Governorship.
Part of the problem with the Republican Party is that they’ve been trying too hard to be Democrats for too long. Comparatively speaking, Clinton was a better Republican than Bush was. I suspect that the reason Bush, Jr was so reviled by the Democrats is because he highlighted their own worst traits for all the world to see.
When in comes to political climatology, we are in a fun-house mirror hall. It wasn’t that long ago when the only way you could hear of political *candidates* talking seriously about a Single Payer systems was to go to a DSA meeting. Now look where we are!
In those days, a moderate Democrat would be a bit to the right of Bush.
So Obama is what we get in reply.. Thanks, guys!
I’m really hoping that the Republicans don’t screw this up.
Sarah Palin is a moron. She is uneducated and a lier.
Palin is all out for money and nothing else. She has no idead and just puts out lies and snarky comments. Stop talking about this divider, she is shameless and ridiculous. Go home Sarah and take care of that messed up family of yours. You are a disgrace as a mother and a human being!
The Palin groupies are comical. Maybe none of them were watching her recent interview, in which no less sympathetic an interviewer than Glen “Toes Over The Edge Of Crazy” Beck asked her to name her favourite Founding Father. Her completely predictable answer? “All of them, really”. This would be the same response a President Palin would make to the CJCS’s question, “Madam President, which of the counterterrorism policies covered in my briefing do you want us to implement?”, or “Madam President, which of your foreign policy goals do you expect to achieve in your first year in office?” Palin is too lazy to read up on anything, too arrogant in her own opinions and too sold on the idea that Americans do not want to be led by someone who is too smart. In being a loudmouth, all flash and no substance, she is a virtual carbon-copy of George W. Bush. She’d be virtually indistinguishable from him as a leader, too. The trouble with following George Bush as a leader is that there’s not much left to ruin. I can’t believe anyone admits to being a Palin follower.