Why would they try to unseat Krazai? Karzai has become disobedient and far too independent. Just look back at his foreign policy maneuvers with China and Russia, and it will be clear. The key to undermine Karzai is to get him weakened in his Pashtun base, and by splitting the Northern Alliance. To this end, Abdullah Abdullah, the Tajik, was recruited. Tajik communities have been pampered to no end. Just have a peek at the “reconstruction” money going there, and soldiers playing with kids. Abdullah had no chance. His support base is non-existent, and after Karzai brought Dostum, the Uzbek, from the voluntary exile, and had him show off support for Karzai, there was no longer support from Uzbeks as well.

So, Clinton could only bank on pummelling Karazai with “you are illegitimate” mantra, and hope Halbrooke would get the point accross with his well known manners, so familiary to anyone from Sebia. Well, Afghanistan is not Serbia, and Holbrooke will be ignored, sidelined and even yelled at. Recounts would show what everyone already knows. Karzai cannot loose. The idea is to ram down his throat Clinton’s trusted hands. UN, on the other hand, saw this as a loosing game. However, UN never does anything independently in Afghanistan. It is possible that “a birdie” told Kai that he can have it his way — and allow inevitable happen. That “birdie”, possibly from the White House, had engineered the fall of unsuspecting Galbraith — who to his last day parroted his assigned lines. The message here is to Halbrooke and Clinton. Do not push, and assume you can have it your way.

In the end, there will be something of a face saving to McChrystal, but probably a change in current reliance on “good Taliban”, that is, Taliban controlled by Pakistan. Their exploits in the Independent Tribal Areas are brining Pakistan to the brink. Hillary is like a good platoon commander. She would continue to charge the hill, even after generals have decided that it makes no sense. She wold go with her head first into the wall, being very sure of herself and her skills. Somehow, somewhere, somebody pulled a rug. She is now trying to figure what happened.

Afghanistan is a complete waste of US resources and lives.

The planners have managed to screw up our own country quite thoroughly. Why would anyone think these same jokers could somehow democratize a wild patch of dirt like Afghanistan?

As far as your thoughts, I’d stick to the simplest explanation, “they are as stumped about what to do now as they were eight months ago,” until we know more. There aren’t easy answers here. It might be the best of two evils to quietly acquiesce to Karzai.