- The American Conservative - http://www.theamericanconservative.com -

Five Already Failed Iraq Tactics

In one form or another, the U.S. has been at war with Iraq since 1990, including a sort-of invasion in 1991 and a full-scale one in 2003. During that quarter-century, Washington imposed several changes of government, spent trillions of dollars, and was involved in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. None of those efforts were a success by any conceivable definition of the term Washington has been capable of offering.

Nonetheless, it’s the American Way to believe with all our hearts that every problem is ours to solve and every problem must have a solution, which simply must be found. As a result, the indispensable nation faces a new round of calls for ideas on what “we” should do next in Iraq.

With that in mind, here are five possible “strategies” for that country on which only one thing is guaranteed: none of them will work.

1. Send in the Trainers

In May, in the wake of the fall of the Sunni city of Ramadi to Islamic State (IS) fighters, President Obama announced a change of course in Iraq. After less than a year of not defeating, degrading, or destroying the Islamic State, the administration will now send in hundreds more military personnel [1] to set up a new training base at Taqaddum in Anbar Province. There are already five [2] training sites running in Iraq, staffed by most of the 3,100 [3] military personnel the Obama administration has sent in. Yet after nine months of work, not a single [4] trained Iraqi trooper has managed to make it into a combat situation [5] in a country embroiled in armed chaos.

The base at Taqaddum may only represent the beginning of a new “surge [6].” General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has begun to talk up what he calls “lily pads [7],” American baselets set up close to the front lines, from which trainers would work with Iraqi security forces. Of course, such lily pads will require hundreds more American military advisers to serve as flies, waiting for a hungry Islamic State frog.

Leaving aside the all-too-obvious joke—that Dempsey is proposing the creation of a literal swamp, a desert quagmire of the lilypad sort—this idea has been tried. It failed over the eight years of the occupation of Iraq, when the U.S. maintained an archipelago of 505 bases [8] in the country. (It also failed in Afghanistan [9].) At the peak of Iraq War 2.0, 166,000 [10] troops staffed those American bases, conducting some $25 billion [11] worth of training and arming of Iraqis, the non-results of which are on display daily. The question then is: How could more American trainers accomplish in a shorter period of time what so many failed to do over so many years?

There is also the American belief that if you offer it, they will come. The results of American training so far, as Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter made clear [12] recently, have fallen far short of expectations. By now, U.S. trainers were to have whipped 24,000 [13] Iraqi soldiers into shape. The actual number to date is claimed to be some 9,000 and the description of a recent “graduation” ceremony for some of them couldn’t have been more dispiriting [14]. (“The volunteers seemed to range in age from late teens to close to 60. They wore a mish-mash of uniforms and boots, while their marching during the ceremony was, shall we say, casual.”) Given how much training the U.S. has made available in Iraq since 2003, it’s hard to imagine that too many young men have not given the option some thought. Simply because Washington opens more training camps, there is no reason to assume that Iraqis will show up.

Oddly enough, just before announcing his new policy, President Obama seemed to pre-agree with critics that it wasn’t likely to work. “We’ve got more training capacity than we’ve got recruits,” he said [15] at the close of the G7 summit in Germany. “It’s not happening as fast as it needs to.” Obama was on the mark. At the al-Asad training facility, the only one [2] in Sunni territory, for instance, the Iraqi government has not sent a single new recruit to be trained by those American advisers for the past six weeks.

And here’s some bonus information: for each U.S. soldier in Iraq, there are already two American contractors. Currently some 6,300 [16] of them are in the country. Any additional trainers mean yet more contractors, ensuring that the U.S. “footprint” made by this no-boots-on-the-ground strategy will only grow and General Dempsey’s lilypad quagmire will come closer to realization.

2. Boots on the Ground

Sen. John McCain, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, is the most vocal [17] proponent of America’s classic national security go-to move: send in U.S. troops. McCain, who witnessed the Vietnam War unfold, knows better than to expect Special Forces operatives, trainers, advisers, and combat air traffic controllers, along with U.S. air power, to turn the tide of any strategic situation. His response is to call for more—and he’s not alone. On the campaign trail recently, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, for instance, suggested that, were he president, he would consider a full-scale “re-invasion [18]” of Iraq. Similarly, Gen. Anthony Zinni, former head of U.S. Central Command, urged [19] the sending in of many boots: “I can tell you, you could put ground forces on the ground now and we can destroy ISIS.”

Among the boots-on-the-ground crowd are also some former soldiers [20] who fought in Iraq in the Bush years, lost friends, and suffered themselves. Blinking through the disillusion of it all, they prefer to believe that we actually won in Iraq (or should have, or would have, if only the Bush and Obama administrations hadn’t squandered the “victory”). Needed now, they claim, are more U.S. troops [21] back on the ground to win the latest version of their war. Some are even volunteering [22] as private citizens to continue the fight. Can there be a sadder argument than the “it can’t all have been a waste” one?

The more-troops option is so easy to dismiss it’s hardly worth another line: if over eight years of effort, 166,000 troops and the full weight of American military power couldn’t do the trick in Iraq, what could you possibly expect even fewer resources to accomplish?

3. Partnering with Iran

As hesitancy within [23] the U.S. military to deploy ground forces in Iraq runs into chicken-hawk drum-pounding in the political arena, working ever more closely with Iran has become the default escalation move. If not American boots, that is, what about Iranian boots?

The backstory for this approach is as odd a Middle Eastern tale as you can find.

The original Obama administration plan was to use Arab, not Iranian, forces as proxy infantry. However, the much-ballyhooed 60-nation [24] pan-Arab coalition [25] proved little more than a short-lived photo op. Few, if any, of their planes are in the air anymore. America flies roughly 85 percent [26] of all missions against Islamic State targets, with Western allies filling in a good part of the rest. No Arab ground troops ever showed up and key coalition countries are now openly snubbing [27] Washington over its possible nuclear deal with Iran.

Washington has, of course, been in a Cold War-ish relationship with Iran since 1979 when the Shah fell and radical students took over [28] the American Embassy in Tehran. In the 1980s, the U.S. aided [29] Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran, while in the years after the invasion of 2003 Iran effectively supported Iraqi Shiite militias against American forces occupying the country. Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani [30], currently directing his country’s efforts in Iraq, was once one of the most wanted men on America’s kill list.

In the wake of the 2014 Islamic State capture of Mosul and other northern Iraqi cities, Iran ramped up its role, sending in trainers, advisers, arms, and its own forces to support the Shiite militias that Baghdad saw as its only hope. The U.S. initially [31] turned a blind eye [32] on all this, even as Iranian-led militias, and possibly the Iranians themselves, became consumers [33] of close American air support.

In Washington right now, there is a growing, if quiet, acknowledgment that Iranian help is one of the few things that might push IS back without the need for U.S. ground troops. Small but telling escalations are occurring regularly. In the battle to retake [34] the northern Sunni city of Tikrit, for example, the United States flew air missions supporting Shiite militias; the fig leaf of an explanation: that they operated under Iraqi government, not Iranian, control.

“We’re going to provide air cover to all forces that are under the command and control of the government of Iraq,” a U.S. Central Command spokesperson similarly noted [35] in reference to the coming fight to retake the city of Ramadi. That signals a significant shift, former State Department official Ramzy Mardini points out [35]. “The U.S. has effectively changed its position, coming to the realization that Shiite militias are a necessary evil in the fight against IS.” Such thinking may extend to Iranian ground troops now evidently fighting [36] outside the strategic Beiji [37] oil refinery.

Things may be even cozier between the U.S. and the Iranian-backed Shiite militias than we previously thought. Bloomberg reports [38] that U.S. soldiers and Shiite militia groups are both already using the Taqaddum military base, the very place where President Obama is sending the latest 450 U.S. military personnel.

The downside? Help to Iran only sets up the next struggle the U.S. is likely to bumble into due to a growing Iranian hegemony [39] in the region. Syria, perhaps?

4. Arm the Kurds

The Kurds represent Washington’s Great Hope for Iraq, a dream that plays perfectly into an American foreign policy trope about needing to be “liked” by someone. (Try Facebook.) These days, glance at just about any conservative website [40] or check out right-wing pundits [41] and enjoy the propaganda [42] about the Kurds: they are plucky fighters, loyal to America, tough bastards who know how to stand and deliver. If only we gave them more weapons, they would kill more Islamic State bad guys just for us. To the right-wing crowd, they are the 21st-century equivalent of Winston Churchill in World War II, crying out [43], “Just give us the tools and we’ll defeat Hitler!”

There is some slight truth in all this. The Kurds have indeed done a good job of pushing IS militants out of swaths of northern Iraq and were happy for U.S. assistance in getting their Peshmerga fighters to the Turkish border when the locus of fighting was the city of Kobane [44]. They remain thankful for the continuing air support the U.S. is providing their front-line troops and for the limited weapons Washington has already sent.

For Washington, the problem is that Kurdish interests are distinctly limited when it comes to fighting Islamic State forces. When the de facto borders of Kurdistan were directly threatened, they fought like caffeinated badgers. When the chance to seize the disputed town of Erbil came up—the government in Baghdad was eager to keep it within its sphere of control—the Kurds beat the breath out of IS.

But when it comes to the Sunni population, the Kurds don’t give a hoot, as long as they stay away from Kurdistan. Has anyone seen Kurdish fighters in Ramadi or anywhere else in heavily Sunni al-Anbar Province? Those strategic areas, now held by the Islamic State, are hundreds of actual miles and millions of political miles from Kurdistan. So, sure, arm the Kurds. But don’t expect them to play a strategic role against IS outside their own neighborhood. A winning strategy for the Kurds involving Washington doesn’t necessarily translate into a winning strategy for Washington in Iraq.

5. That Political Solution

Washington’s current man in Baghdad, Prime Minister al-Abadi, hasn’t moved [45] his country any closer to Sunni-Shiite reconciliation than his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki, did. In fact, because Abadi has little choice but to rely on those Shiite militias, which will fight when his corrupt, inept army won’t, he has only drawn closer to Iran. This has ensured that any (American) hope of bringing Sunnis into the process in a meaningful way as part of a unified government in a unified state will prove to be a pipe dream.

A balance of forces is a prerequisite for a Shiite-Sunni-Kurdish federal Iraq [46]. With no side strong enough to achieve victory or weak enough to lose, negotiations could follow. When then-Senator Joe Biden first proposed the idea of a three-state Iraq in 2006 [47], it just might have been possible. However, once the Iranians had built a Shiite Iraqi client state in Baghdad and then, in 2014, unleashed the militias as an instrument of national power, that chance was lost.

Many Sunnis see no other choice but to support the Islamic State, as they did al-Qaeda in Iraq in the years after the American invasion of 2003. They fear those Shiite militias—and with good reason. Stories from the largely Sunni city of Tikrit, where militia-led forces defeated Islamic State fighters, describe [48] “a ghost town ruled by gunmen.” In the Euphrates Valley town of Jurf al-Sakhar [49], there were reports of ethnic cleansing. Similarly, the mainly Sunni population of the city of Nukhayb, which sits at a strategic crossroad between Sunni and Shiite areas, has accused the militias of taking over while pretending [50] to fight the extremists.

There remains great fear in Sunni-dominated Anbar of massacres and “cleansing” if Shiite militias enter the province in force. In such a situation, there will always be a place for an al-Qaeda, an Islamic State, or some similar movement, no matter how brutal, to defend the beleaguered Sunni population. What everyone in Iraq understands, and apparently almost everyone in America does not, is that the Islamic State is a symptom of civil war, not a standalone threat.

One lingering hope [51] of the Obama administration has no support in Baghdad and so has remained a non-starter: defeating IS by arming Sunni tribes directly in the style of the “Anbar Awakening [52]” movement of the occupation years. Indeed, the central government fears arming them, absent a few token units to keep the Americans quiet. The Shiites know better than most what an insurgency can do to help defeat a larger, better-armed, power.

Yet despite the risk of escalating Iraq’s shadow civil war, the U.S. now is moving to directly arm the Sunnis. Current plans are to import weapons into the newest lilypad base in Anbar and pass them [7] on to local Sunni tribes, whether Baghdad likes that or not (and yes, the break with Baghdad is worth noting). The weapons themselves are as likely to be wielded against Shiite militias as against the Islamic State, assuming they aren’t just handed over to IS fighters.

The loss of equipment to those militants is no small thing. No one talking about sending more new weaponry [53] to Iraq, no matter who the recipient is, should ignore the ease with which Islamic State militants have taken U.S.-supplied heavy weapons [54]. Washington has been forced to direct [55] air strikes against such captured equipment—even as it ships yet more [56] in. In Mosul, some 2,300 Humvees [57] were abandoned to IS fighters in June 2014; more were left to them when Iraqi army forces suddenly fled Ramadi in May. This pattern of supply, capture, and resupply would be comically absurd, had it not turned tragic when some of those Humvees were used by IS as rolling, armored suicide bombs [58] and Washington had to rush AT-4 anti-tank missiles to the Iraqi army to destroy them.

The Real Reason Nothing Is Going to Work

The fundamental problem underlying nearly every facet of U.S. policy toward Iraq is that “success,” as defined in Washington, requires all the players to act against their own wills, motivations, and goals in order to achieve U.S. aims. The Sunnis need a protector as they struggle for a political place, if not basic survival, in some new type of Iraq. The Shiite government in Baghdad seeks to conquer and control the Sunni regions. Iran wants to secure Iraq as a client state and use it for easier access to Syria [59]. The Kurds want an independent homeland.

When Secretary of Defense Ash Carter remarked [60], “What apparently happened [in Ramadi] was that the Iraqi forces just showed no will to fight,” what he really meant was that the many flavors of forces in Iraq showed no will to fight for America’s goals. In the Washington mind-set, Iraq is charged with ultimate responsibility for resolving problems that were either created by or exacerbated by the U.S. in the first place, even as America once again assumes an ever-greater role in that country’s increasingly grim fate.

For America’s “plan” to work, Sunni tribesmen would have to fight Sunnis from the Islamic State in support of a Shiite government that suppressed [61] their peaceful Arab-Spring-style protests, and that, backed by Iran, has been ostracizing, harassing, and murdering them. The Kurds would have to fight for an Iraqi nation-state from which they wish to be independent. It can’t work.

Go back to 2011 and it’s unlikely anyone could have imagined that the same guy who defeated Hillary Clinton and gained the White House based on his opposition to the last Iraq War would send the U.S. tumbling [62] back into that chaotic country. If ever there was an avoidable American crisis, Iraq War 3.0 is it. If ever there was a war, whatever its chosen strategies, in which the U.S. has no hopes of achieving its goals, this is it.

By now, you’re undoubtedly shaking your head and asking, “How did this happen?” Historians will do the same.

Peter Van Buren blew the whistle on State Department waste and mismanagement during the Iraqi reconstruction in We Meant Well: How I Helped Lose the Battle for the Hearts and Minds of the Iraqi People [63]. TomDispatch [64] regular he writes about current events at We Meant Well [65]. His latest book is Ghosts of Tom Joad: A Story of the #99Percent [66]. His next work will be Hooper’s War, a novel.

Copyright 2015, Peter Van Buren

11 Comments (Open | Close)

11 Comments To "Five Already Failed Iraq Tactics"

#1 Comment By grim outlook On June 25, 2015 @ 2:36 pm

“The fundamental problem underlying nearly every facet of U.S. policy toward Iraq is that “success,” as defined in Washington, requires all the players to act against their own wills, motivations, and goals in order to achieve U.S. aims.”

You underestimate the roles of corruption and incompetence. We try to align the interests of various “players” by showering them with money and weapons, which only serves to corrupt them. And we have amply demonstrated our own incompetence in numerous ways ranging from military strategy to basic diplomacy.

#2 Comment By EliteCommInc. On June 25, 2015 @ 2:43 pm

I only have two obkectios of sorts. And will refrain from re-educating anyone on the value, purpose and effectiveness of ground forces.

1. Time and time again ground forces turned the tide in Vietnam.

2. I appreciate the references to the Kurds, the entire episode is going to eventually unravel, if the Iraqis ever come to some agreement amongst themselves. Because I think “Kurdistan” will be unwelcome as an independent state in the Iraq proper and mins US presence — a failure.

I don’t know how one takes responsibility for the mess of Iraq and the entire region in for which are responsible. For me it is a dillemma. Simple: if you come into my house and make a mess, there is some moral responsibility and obligation to clean it up.

Now perjaps the best way to clean it up is to stay the heck out as our attempts seem to exaccerbate the problem.

But make no mistake, our hands are not clean.

#3 Comment By Fran Macadam On June 25, 2015 @ 3:29 pm

“Nonetheless, it’s the American Way to believe with all our hearts that every problem is ours to solve and every problem must have a solution, which simply must be found.”

I might add, that the solution is ultimately always framed in the context of violence.

Which only always is the proximate cause for the next violent conflict.

Profitable for the subcontractors and war industries, though, and empire-building is good for military bureaucratic empire-building, too.

#4 Comment By antheros On June 25, 2015 @ 7:55 pm

“General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has begun to talk up what he calls “lily pads,” American baselets set up close to the front lines, from which trainers would work with Iraqi security forces.”

When I read this, my first thought was they’re reinventing the oil spot concept AGAIN? How many times that this idiocy been resurrected since it was dreamed up? How many times has it worked? As some poster said elsewhere, yes, history does repeat itself. First tragedy, second farce, third slapstick, and fourth Dada.

#5 Comment By Charlieford On June 25, 2015 @ 8:03 pm

“Time and time again ground forces turned the tide in Vietnam.”

Of course, well, tactically at least. No sane observant person doubts the efficiency and capacity of the US military to accomplish its mission: To destroy military opponents.

In too many instances, however, the US has tried to use it to resolve political tensions and disputes we understand only dimly, or are inherently incapable of resolving even when we do understand them.

Vietnam is an excellent example: We were blind to the fact that, as Westerners who had actually sponsored France’s attempt at perpetuating its enemy, that we would be doubly distrusted, and that association with us would contaminate any indigenous government we sponsored. That the government we happened to sponsor was endlessly corrupt, alienated by religion and culture from the mass of its own people, with its military officers trained by the French, made it all the more a lost cause from the beginning.

So here, in Iraq. By inserting ourselves into their Sunni-Shi’a civil war, we make it about us, as surely as the French would have, had they sent ground troops to resolve our civil war.

#6 Comment By JohnG On June 26, 2015 @ 4:15 am

I agree with the analysis but I don’t buy the premise. What are really our goals in Iraq, what problems or “problems” are we trying to solve, what do we WANT?

Looking at the region and our actions so far (not to mention the regimes we consider allies), our goal was more likely a reliable/stable client state than a peaceful, democratic, and prosperous Iraq. This is called colonialism, so let’s not act surprised when it doesn’t work just like it didn’t work for the British empire. You end up having to buy and feed so many clients with conflicting interest that it bankrupts you.

We are in the final stages in which the only real question is whether we’ll realize this on time, before a major economic meltdown becomes inevitable. The really scary part is that the always delusional “bright” neocon thinkers and military-industrial complex lobbyists, embedded throughout the media, foreign service, etc. seem to think that we can avoid this reckoning by fueling endless sectarian and ethnic conflicts in the region. If it weren’t so, we would have organized a peace conference and/or (con)federalized Iraq long time ago, because, as someone said above, if you break it – it’s yours.

#7 Comment By sid_finster On June 26, 2015 @ 10:00 am

Adding to the moral, operational and inter-group chaos is the fact that in Syria we are the Islamic State’s ally, or at least willing to look the other way as long as it is the main force fighting Assad.

Then there is the troubling matter of our “partners in the War on Terrorism” in the Gulf….

#8 Comment By jervin On June 26, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

I am reminded of what the AI said at the end of the movie “War Games”

Joshua: Greetings, Professor Falken.
Stephen Falken: Hello, Joshua.
Joshua: A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?

–from [67]

#9 Comment By AnotherBeliever On June 26, 2015 @ 6:22 pm

This list needs to be plastered to every telephone pole and transit station and parking garage walk in the D.C. Metropolitan area.

#10 Comment By jk On June 27, 2015 @ 12:17 pm

We hear the oft quoted pottery barn rule, but what moral responsibility does that entail the US to perform?

Is the US’ obligation to make Iraq better than it was to Saddam’s era? To restore it Saddam’s era since that is the state before the invasion of 2003?
Is it the US’ obligation to rid Iraq of all religious conflict and violence and ensure economic prosperity of all Iraqis? Is that an even realistic standard? Estimate the worth of all Iraqis estimated to have been killed at US’ hands and repay the government of Iraq?

#11 Comment By SoberMoney On June 28, 2015 @ 12:26 am

Our reason for invading Iraq was primarily for corporate profits, just as almost all our invasions are – going all the way back to the Hawaiian Islands.

We had some integrity getting into WW1 and 2, but now we are becoming a failing imperialist empire.

It been said the 20th century was America’s century. Although that is true, we are not fooling anyone anymore.