Yesterday Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux beat Republican former state Rep. Woody Jenkins in the race for the Louisiana congressional seat held by retiring Republican Richard Baker. The Washington Post‘s Chris Cillizza anticipates that the GOP will argue that this result is not particularly portentous, since Jenkins — like Jim Oberweis, the dairy magnate who failed to hold Denny Hastert’s Illinois seat for the party — was an unorthodox and rather weak candidate. Even if that’s true, however, that’s hardly an excuse for the GOP: nominating weak candidates in Republican-leaning districts is not a strategy that’s going to take back Congress, nor even stanch GOP losses in the fall.

That said, in November, a black Democratic state legislator, Michael Jackson, is planning to run against Cazayoux as an independent, which gives the GOP a shot at reclaiming the seat. In the meantime, all eyes turn to Mississippi, where round 2 in the race to fill the congressional seat being vacated by Roger Wicker will take place on May 13.