The polls were not skewed.
They did not oversample Democrats.
They did not overestimate Democratic turnout.
President Obama’s 2008 coalition — minorities, young people, single women, educated whites — held.
After tonight, Nate Silver will become a bona fide media celebrity, but in truth he’s more like a hood ornament on a machine that functioned remarkably smoothy tonight: Polls strongly suggested President Obama had an edge in the battleground — and so it turned out. When it’s all settled, it’s likely that Romney will have flipped just two Obama states — North Carolina and Indiana — surprising precisely no one.
As I write, Romney has not yet conceded, but pundits have quickly moved on to more pressing questions: 1) How will congressional Republicans respond? By retrenching? Or compromising? And more broadly, 2) Will the party conclude it needs to moderate its image in order to assemble a national coalition?
Since I chickened out on a prediction tonight, I will say this: I think it’s eminently possible that Obama and the House GOP will be able to come to terms on how to avoid the “fiscal cliff.” The pressure to accede on revenue is going to be enormous — especially after the still-Democratic Senate “decouples” votes on tax rates on the wealthy and the middle class. Longer term, I’m told Sen. Max Baucus was very keen on working with Republicans on tax reform no matter who won tonight. In addition to seeing his key first-term accomplishments (Obamacare, financial reform) unmolested for the next four years, I think we’re going to see movement on taxes and revenue — and sooner rather than later.
There. I said it.
On Medicare and Medicaid?
Let me sleep on it.