Some of my friends in the reality-based community who have been celebrating the alleged resurgence of foreign policy realism in Washington, in the forms of Robert Gates and Condi Rice, and have been expressing confidence that a U.S. military confrontation with Iran will not take place before the elections in November. I’ve been very skeptical and have continued to insist that a confrontation with Iran before November is more likely than not, either as a result of an Israeli strike against Iran/Osirak Redux? or a Persian Gulf of Tonkin Incident.
I think that the Petraeus nomination of to lead Central Command and reports from Israel suggest that we’re going to have a “surpise” or “surprises” re U.S./Iran/Israel which is (are) going to help John McCain in his race against either Barck Obama or Hillary Clinton. And depending on the date of the “surprise(s),” it (they) could also play into the hand of Hillary as she tries to convince the Superdelegates to select her as the Democratic presidential candidate.
In any case, it’s not surprising that President Bush is confident that when it comes to Iran and Iran and his successor, “We’ll fix it so he’ll be locked in.” From that perspective, Bush is the realist.